Reasons for cautious optimism

While the mood in EM financial markets has soured a little of late, from an economic standpoint, the past month has brought several positive developments. First, Q4 GDP data released so far have generally been better than expected. Recoveries have been supported by more targeted lockdowns, and businesses have adapted to restrictions. Second, COVID-19 cases have fallen in most places, notably in much of Latin America, South Africa and parts of Emerging Europe. And third, vaccination progress has been encouraging.