Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Trump & ESG markets We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric... 25th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs offer some hope of easing services price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response First thoughts on the global IT outage The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all” While the global monetary policy loosening cycle is now well underway, there is more nuance than you might assume. Recent data have made us more confident that cuts (or further cuts) are to come in... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will... 17th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update UN projections point to slower global population growth The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the... 15th July 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the stickiness of services inflation? Disinflation in the services sector seems to have stalled in several advanced economies this year. That’s partly because the easiest wins related to food and energy effects are behind us and also... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have continued to rise, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the inflation of a bubble in stock markets, itself a... 12th July 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds likely to keep trailing equities We think that corporate bonds will continue to underperform equities, as credit spreads are already low, economic growth moderates, and equities benefit more from enthusiasm about AI. 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight... 10th July 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar down as more cracks emerge in US economy More evidence of softening in the US economy from data releases – notably, the ISM survey data and June’s employment report – weighed on US Treasury yields and left the greenback lower against most... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read