FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound skips a beat on FOMC ambivalence After a strong run since mid-May, the US dollar has stalled this week after a run of mixed data and Fed officials striking a cautious tone in recent speeches pushed US interest rate expectations a... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap OPEC+ likely to stand pat It was a week of two halves, with prices initially falling before the passage of the US debt ceiling bill and a strong US May employment report saw prices recoup some of those losses later in the week... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand weighing on price pressures Although activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have improved somewhat in May, that was mainly due to stronger growth in some large emerging markets. The outlook for industry remains bleak... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Book Odds look stacked against risky assets Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so. We don’t think... 1st June 2023 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to solid, if unexciting, demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that the economic recovery is ongoing, but the pace of growth has slowed. While a lower reading for construction activity is a negative for metals prices, the persistent... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Chart Book Crosswinds continue in currency markets The US dollar has rebounded in recent weeks as resilient US economic data and renewed hawkish noises from the FOMC have revived the “higher for longer” narrative, shifting relative interest rate... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Book US equity rally may be on shaky foundations Recent gains in the US stock market have been unusually narrow, and we don’t think the conditions are yet in place for a broad-based rally. 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Ajay Banga does not have a silver bullet Ajay Banga appears to be well qualified to lead the World Bank Group and is as well-placed as anyone to “mobilise” Wall Street cash to fund climate-related projects. However, progress on reducing... 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in trade in March likely to be short-lived Although world trade rebounded in March amid the reopening recovery in China, we don’t think this marks the beginning of a broader turnaround in global trade. In fact, timelier data point to renewed... 31st May 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wrap Data and debt ceiling to move prices next week Commodity prices generally fell this week, as investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate rose on concern about the persistence of high inflation. The dollar also strengthened... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar marches on thanks to “higher for longer” For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive... 26th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Climate Economics Update Aviation pins its hopes on sustainable jet fuel The aviation sector is pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuel to help cut its carbon footprint over the coming decades. But any ramp-up in biofuel usage would pit aviation against the needs of... 25th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to widen on US weakness The long-awaited inclusion of WTI Midland into Dated Brent is now taking place in a gradual month-long process that started on 2nd May. The inclusion of Midland could be a factor weighing on the Brent... 24th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) Steel mills reduced output in April in y/y terms, meaning that global production is down year-to-date. We think that producers will continue to limit output for a few more months due to tepid demand.... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
