We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be a relative bright spot. Tariffs will weigh on global trade. But as long as countries’ retaliations are limited and China is able to reroute most of its exports, the overall hit should be fairly modest. Inflation should continue to moderate, giving central banks leeway to continue cutting interest rates. But a tariff-induced rebound in core goods inflation in the US should keep the Fed on the sidelines for the remainder of this year.
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