EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few large economies – China, Brazil and Russia. Many other EMs are likely to see rapid or accelerating growth, notably India but also parts of South East Asia, Central Europe and North Africa. EM equity markets are likely to post solid gains next year, particularly in Asia (which should continue to benefit from AI enthusiasm). But a repeat of this year's stellar outperformance is unlikely and most currencies will fall against the dollar.
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