Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global inflation to undershoot consensus forecasts Global inflation looks set to undershoot consensus forecasts, amid falling commodity prices, cooling labour markets, and an absence of inflationary spillovers from tariffs. In the US, we expect core... · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs could be the next to hike? We doubt that any other major EM central bank will imminently follow Colombia in kicking off hiking cycles, although a strengthening of inflation pressures in parts of Central Europe (Czechia and... · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign... · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI to deliver one final rate cut next week The weakness of inflation over recent months continues to outweigh concerns about currency depreciation and leaves the door open for the RBI to deliver one final rate cut at the conclusion of the MPC... · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2026 After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of... · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where do EMs sit in the business cycle? Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will... · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China is no longer an EM outperformer China’s economy has grown faster than other EMs in aggregate every year outside of the pandemic so far this century. But that run is now coming to an end and we expect growth on our China Activity... · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Dollar recovery only part of the story for EM FX After a relatively good run, we think EM currencies will generally depreciate over the coming quarters as the US dollar recovers. Heavily managed currencies in high-inflation economies like the... · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tougher times ahead for EM manufacturing The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in September was primarily driven by the jump in China. China (and India) aside, the EM PMIs generally remain weak and a combination of high US tariffs, tight... · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS? President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the... · 3 mins read
