Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis?

4th March 2026

The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most EMs are starting from a position of strength, limiting the risk of large currency adjustments. Vulnerabilities are concentrated in a few EMs, notably Turkey, Egypt, Zambia and Uganda.

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Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis?

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Read this in full, free

The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates

Iran conflict

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026)

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