Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA fuel prices, inflation and the policy response Sub-Saharan Africa looks better placed to face the current energy shock than the last one in 2022. But the region is still vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East via the impact on fuel supplies... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa, the Middle East conflict & the rates outlook Weak core inflation pressures in South Africa mean that the Reserve Bank is less likely to rule out monetary easing in the face of the energy price shock than most other EM central banks. If the... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Easing sovereign debt risks bolster the region’s resilience The shock from the conflict in the Middle East has only had a modest impact on government borrowing costs in Africa, reflecting a marked improvement in sovereign risk profiles in the last few years... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2025) South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.4% q/q in the final quarter, a modest pick-up from the revised 0.3% q/q growth recorded in Q3, helped by stronger consumer spending. While the conflict in the... 10th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets have further to fall if Iran conflict intensifies While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle South Africa's government opted – as we expected - to use its 2026 Budget to give away its recent revenue windfall. That it was able to do so reflects the remarkable turnaround in the public finances... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s rally is probably over The Nigerian naira has been one of the strongest performing EM currencies since the start of the year, helped by an improved balance of payments position. But the naira’s rally is starting to hurt... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2026) Our EM Capital Flows measure points to a decline in inflows in recent weeks, although some of this appears to be related to idiosyncratic factors. And in any case, EM external positions look strong by... 26th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM budget deficits on diverging paths Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
