Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Why the SARB will cut rates by more than most expect We think there is a much larger negative output gap in South Africa’s economy than is widely assumed, which will keep inflation around 3%, rather than rise towards 4.5% as the Reserve Bank (SARB) and... 7th July 2025 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan protests exacerbating default fear Protests have erupted again in Kenya recently, bringing violence and instability, and highlighting that the government lacks the political capital to repair the fragile fiscal position. With... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: GNU anniversary, Kenya protests, Angola IMF loan The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Israel-Iran impact, US-Africa trade, DRC peace deal The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy struggling at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that the weakness of South Africa’s economy in the first quarter of the year – in which GDP expanded by a measly 0.1% q/q – carried over into the start of Q2. Industry... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May' 25.) The fact that South Africa’s headline inflation was unchanged at 2.8% y/y in May, lends more evidence that the SARB should be unworried about underlying price pressures in the economy. Coming... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2025) South Africa’s muted 0.1% q/q growth in the first quarter of the year on the back of a downwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q4 of last year suggests the recovery is losing momentum. That will only... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Two years of Tinubu, SARB cut & inflation target Bola Tinubu marked his two year anniversary as Nigeria’s president this week by talking of new spending plans funded by foreign loans – which seems to be aimed in part at least at shoring up his... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
