Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that economic and financial vulnerabilities in most EMs were low coming into the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 26) The jump in energy prices due to the Iran war will lift revenues in Angola and Nigeria. And upcoming elections mean that most of the windfall will be spent, thereby supporting stronger growth. But... 30th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) South Africa’s Reserve Bank will welcome last month’s soft inflation outturn of 3.1% y/y but adjustments to administered fuel prices will cause inflation to jump in April. Even so, the headline rate... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya holds rates, Nigeria insecurity worsening The energy price shock prompted the Central Bank of Kenya to halt its easing cycle this week and, while policymakers sound relatively sanguine, they appear to be underestimating the risks from growing... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade & budget data, SSA activity holds up Trade and budget data released this week suggest that South Africa headed into the energy price shock in decent shape. But we are concerned about the risks that a longer war could pose to the fiscal... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel prices, SARB watching second-round effects African government’s responses to rising fuel prices are falling into two camps: those passing higher costs directly to consumers and those absorbing them. Kenya and Ethiopia are doing the latter but... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB looks through energy shock, for now The South Africa Reserve Bank held it repo rate at 6.75% again today as it made clear that it will look through the initial energy price shock. For now, so long as the war ends in the coming weeks as... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
