Africa Economics Update South Africa: an opportunistic MTBPS South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as an opportunity to spend a large chunk of a recent revenue windfall to boost the economy. But this is likely... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: structural reforms lag fiscal improvement South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has made important progress in tackling supply-side bottlenecks in the energy and logistics sectors. But, overall, our assessment is that the GNU’s... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump takes aim at Nigeria, build up to MTBPS Nigeria became the latest country to face President Trump's wrath this week. For now, there are reasons to think that any economic impact will be limited. But it’s another reason for African... 7th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: narrower deficit means few fireworks at MTBPS The improvement in South Africa’s budget position and sharp fall in local currency bond yields mean less is at stake at next week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) than there was at the... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debt restructuring, fiscal risks, elections Mozambique’s key gas projects are at risk of further delays, which appears to have tipped the government towards seeking a debt restructuring. But while Mozambique stands out for having particularly... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025) EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported... 29th October 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to watch as Tanzania heads to the polls? Tanzania’s presidential election tomorrow is likely to result in a win for incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan and ongoing investments into infrastructure and the extractives sector will support strong GDP... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China’s exports, South Africa’s latest GNU policy fight Chinese trade data out this week showed that the surge in exports to Africa continued, which most countries in the region seem to be welcoming. And taken together with efforts to reduce the costs of... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep' 25) South Africa’s weaker-than-expected headline inflation reading of 3.4% y/y for September should do more than enough to sway the Reserve Bank to restart its monetary easing cycle next month, with the... 22nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Odinga’s passing, oil prices drop, Nigeria inflation The passing this week of Raila Odinga, a prominent politician in Kenya, is likely to result in his party being less committed to the governing alliance with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep' 25) The sharp drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 18.0% y/y last month is likely to prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to continue cutting interest rates, and by more than most expect, over the... 15th October 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa activity remains bumpy The South African activity data for August showed that the retail sector is struggling, but it looks like the economy will post reasonable growth in the third quarter on the back of rising output in... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to watch out for as Côte d’Ivoire votes? Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is just a few weeks away and, while incumbent President Ouattara looks set to retain office, democratic backsliding raises the risk that unrest breaks out around... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
