Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We think economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will weather US tariffs relatively well. Indeed, improved terms of trade (for most) and lower inflation and interest rates should support a modest pick-up... 27th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya’s finance scramble, South Africa CPI and rates Kenya’s efforts to deal with its fiscal problems may alleviate short-term pressures, but we remain concerned that the path to avoiding sovereign default in the medium term remains narrow. Elsewhere... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA inflation trending down and rates will follow Many central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa have cut interest rates over the past year or so and Nigeria will soon join the rate-cutting club. With inflation low or falling in most countries, we... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery back on track in Q2 June’s activity data suggest that, after a sluggish start to the year, South Africa’s economic recovery picked up in the second quarter, with GDP likely to have expanded by 0.8-1.0% q/q. And we think... 13th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Zambia IMF money, Lower West African cocoa harvests Zambia secured another disbursement from the IMF this week and, given severe fiscal strains, it seems most likely that policymakers will seek a successor programme when the current one ends in October... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB cuts and unofficially adopts lower inflation target The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to continue with its interest easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.00% was unsurprising, and the highlight of the meeting was Governor Kganyago’s... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA interest rate cuts, Nigeria tax reform The weak inflation reading for June out of South Africa this week strengthens the case for the SARB to cut interest rates on Thursday. And further out we think that rates will be lowered by more than... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
