Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting... 28th April 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar' 25.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 2.7% y/y in March will give the Reserve Bank more confidence that its easing cycle can resume. We expect a 25bp reduction to... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB’s Monetary Policy Review, Nigeria Inflation The SARB’s Monetary Policy Review published this week set out plenty of upside risks to inflation, but it looks like some of the risks from VAT hikes and tariffs have diminished. With inflation likely... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak activity data, but recovery to resume The February activity figures out of South Africa showed that the economy was struggling even before the added headwind from US import tariffs. But while there are downside risks to growth, we still... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Trump and Africa: the story so far The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices... 10th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, SA Budget and GNU instability African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa and US auto tariffs, Nigeria’s oil blasts South Africa finds itself in the firing line from US President Trump’s auto tariffs, but the macro impact will be limited and other developments over the past week have been more positive for the... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2025) The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya-IMF disagreement, SARB’s uncertainty worries Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal may replace it, we think public debt concerns are likely to build... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
