SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble

We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s terms of trade are likely to remain much stronger relative to 2025. This should support mining investment and provide the government with a revenue windfall, which it will probably spend. All of this supports our view that GDP growth will beat consensus expectations over 2026-27.