Africa Economics Weekly South African inflation, Abiy’s next term Data due next week are likely to show a further rise in inflation in South Africa in May, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy again. But we think a hike in July will... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2026) South Africa’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% q/q in the first quarter but there were signs of weakness under the hood, which will make the Reserve Bank cautious about delivering... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food Inflation, Angola Eurobond, Nigeria GDP The South African Reserve Bank talked up inflation risks at its meeting this week, at which it hiked rates by 25bp, but the tightening cycle is likely to be modest. Elsewhere, Angola has tapped... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but tightening cycle to be short The South African Reserve Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% today as expected and, while it acknowledged that inflation risks are firmly to the upside, the Reserve Bank still looks likely to... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May 26) Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: from one energy crisis to the next South Africa this week marked a full year without power outages, but the effects of the energy shock from the Iran war are now starting to kick in. We think the rise in inflation in April was probably... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The stronger-than-expected South African inflation reading for April (both headline and core) probably tips the balance towards the Reserve Bank (SARB) opting for a 25bp interest rate hike (to 7.00%)... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA impeachment, Angola & Zambia rate cuts This week’s restart of impeachment proceedings against South Africa’s President Ramaphosa threatens to stall the government’s reform agenda and, in turn, harm the prospect of achieving sustained GDP... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 26) The jump in energy prices due to the Iran war will lift revenues in Angola and Nigeria. And upcoming elections mean that most of the windfall will be spent, thereby supporting stronger growth. But... 30th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) South Africa’s Reserve Bank will welcome last month’s soft inflation outturn of 3.1% y/y but adjustments to administered fuel prices will cause inflation to jump in April. Even so, the headline rate... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
