Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3 2024) South Africa’s economy recorded a surprise contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q3, but that was largely due to a steep decline in agricultural output. The rest of the economy held up much better and we expect... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a... 27th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB rate cuts, Nigeria’s optimistic budget The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) struck an optimistic tone when it cut its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% this week and we expect more easing from here. But a potential lowering of the inflation... 22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update The potential losers if AGOA is removed US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact... 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals soft end to Q3 South Africa’s activity data for September points to a subdued end to Q3, but we think this softer patch will be short-lived as low inflation and the SARB’s easing cycle provide some support to demand... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation, to 2.8% y/y, in October, will make it harder for the SARB to strike a hawkish tone regarding inflation pressures at its monetary policy committee meeting... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
