Event

Drop-In: South Africa Budget – Are the public finances really on the mend?

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South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit

Africa Economics Update

SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity

South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp...

15th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms

Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mozambique’s election, SA surveys, Ghana debt deal

Mozambicans head to the polls on Wednesday with the ruling Fremilo party widely expected to hold on to power. The elections come amid growing signals that key gas projects, which are vital to the...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in August, finally replicating the improvements we have seen in other survey indicators. A backdrop of interest rate cuts and improving supply conditions...

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling...

27th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint

A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and...

25th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB’s paradox, floods in West Africa and Sahel

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) outlined a “goldilocks” scenario of stronger growth and lower inflation at its MPC meeting this week and, if supply side constraints continue to ease, it may feel...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SARB cautiously cuts by 25bp

The South African Reserve Bank finally joined the EM easing cycle today, lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 8.00%. While the MPC clearly has some lingering concerns about the inflation outlook, we...

19th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

S. Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.'24)

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24)

South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug' 24.)

The dip in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.4% y/y, in August and the further decline in core inflation all but seals the deal on the SARB start an easing cycle tomorrow. We have pencilled...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB to cut, oil prices slump

The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes

The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa GDP (Q2 2024)

South Africa’s economy recorded weaker-than-expected growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 which, coming alongside the easing of inflation pressures, further strengthens the case for an interest rate cut at the...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read