South Africa Budget, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle

South Africa's government opted – as we expected - to use its 2026 Budget to give away its recent revenue windfall. That it was able to do so reflects the remarkable turnaround in the public finances. But stronger growth will also be needed to bring the debt ratio down. Elsewhere Kenya’s central bank governor made the case that more interest rate cuts were needed to lift growth. But with macro imbalances growing due to fiscal consolidation challenges, the shilling could come under pressure and bring the easing cycle to an abrupt halt.