Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades won’t be far away. In South Africa, fiscal strength and subdued growth are reinforcing our view that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle will be brief. Finally, vote counting is underway in Ethiopia, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party set for a comfortable election victory but the next government will need to address a number of economic challenges.
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