Africa Economics Weekly SA fiscal policy gains, Ghana mineral export ban South Africa’s markets welcomed this week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), affirming our view that continued fiscal discipline and higher infrastructure spending are brightening the... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation remains on track South Africa’s finance minister announced in today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) that the revenue windfall had persisted, allowing him to cover higher debt servicing costs and lift non... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s conundrum, regional rating agency Contained inflation and higher FX reserves have given Kenya's central bank a buffer to avoid hiking interest rates for now, but we still think the shilling will eventually need to be devalued and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s resilient economy to keep accelerating Nigeria’s economy picked up over the first half of the year and we think growth will accelerate into 2027-28, supported by rising oil production, recovering real incomes, and increasingly supportive... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa public debt ratio is about to peak South Africa’s government debt-to-GDP ratio should peak this year, and we think the government will use the Medium-Term Budget Statement (MTBPS) later this month to reaffirm its fiscal discipline... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia conflict, Nigeria cuts rates, SA hikes This week’s renewed fighting raises the risk of Ethiopia sliding back into civil war, threatening what had up to now looked like strong growth prospects. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s large 350bp rate cut... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but that’s probably the end of the cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) chose to restart monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to 7.25% today, but the commentary suggests that this hiking cycle may already be over. Higher energy prices... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) The smaller-than-expected rise in South African inflation in August, to 4.4% y/y, and signs of softer underlying inflation pressures will be welcome news for SARB officials. It will be a close call... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update More easing to follow CBN’s bumper rate cut The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) surprise decision to cut its policy rate by 350bp today, to 23.00%, underlines its confidence that the disinflation process will continue over the coming months... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s final rate cut, Nigeria and SA to hold rates The Angolan central bank's latest rate cut delivered this week is likely to be its last for some time. Next week, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria to hold at 26.50%, as inflation remains too high... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 15.4% y/y in August, which keeps the door ajar for a rate cut next week. But we think credibility concerns will win out, and the MPC will keep rates... 15th September 2026 · 2 mins read
