While the South African Democratic Alliance's change in leadership in April is unlikely to affect the stability of the Government of National Unity, there are key risks ahead including municipal elections this year and the ANC leadership election in 2027. Meanwhile, President Trump's renewal of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) is positive, but the mere one year extension leaves a cloud of uncertainty around the trading outlook. And US outreach to the continent is lagging behind China's . Finally, Ghana saw inflation slow again in December and, like elsewhere in the region, we think this will result in more rate cuts than the consensus anticipates this year.
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