Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Investors cheer Milei’s win, Brazil’s soybeans The strong showing for Milei's LLA party in Argentina's mid-term elections last Sunday has led to a sharp improvement in sentiment and should ease pressure on the peso in the near-term. But the risk... 31st October 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tariff cut isn’t the biggest trade truce win for China The halving of fentanyl tariffs won’t have much of an impact on China's economy. More consequential for China is the suspension of the Entity List Affiliates Rule, which buys thousands of firms time... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debt restructuring, fiscal risks, elections Mozambique’s key gas projects are at risk of further delays, which appears to have tipped the government towards seeking a debt restructuring. But while Mozambique stands out for having particularly... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election looms large over India-US trade talks The Bihar state election will be closely watched for its implications for reforms and as a potential referendum on India’s stance in trade talks with the US. Bihar is one of India’s most agrarian... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Arabia’s FII: PIF and AI dominate the headlines Comments at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia this week suggest that the Public Investment Fund will take a step back from driving investment in the Kingdom, paving the way for greater... 30th October 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Xi-Trump talks buy China time to decouple at its own pace The reversal of some US tariffs on China won’t have a big impact given that Chinese exporters had largely shrugged them off. But the de-escalation takes the immediate threat of large tariff hikes off... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American economies fared poorly in Q3 and we think that headwinds ranging... 28th October 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Argentina’s mid-terms The larger-than-expected victory for Argentina’s President Milei in Sunday’s mid-term elections has sparked a rally in Argentinian financial markets. Our initial response to the election can be found... 27th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Argentina Mid-Term Elections (October 2025) The strong showing for President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party is not only an endorsement of his reform agenda but will also substantially increase the LLA’s representation in congress, which... 27th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Record shutdown would still have little impact The Federal government shutdown is headed into a fourth week. With the Senate still holding periodic votes that are doomed to fail – as lawmakers remain firmly split along party lines – and with the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Pressure on Russia ramps up as Trump loses patience The US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector announced this week, if enforced stringently, have the potential to significantly raise the cost for Russia of continuing the war in Ukraine. But Putin’s... 24th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China’s exports, South Africa’s latest GNU policy fight Chinese trade data out this week showed that the surge in exports to Africa continued, which most countries in the region seem to be welcoming. And taken together with efforts to reduce the costs of... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly All eyes on Argentina’s election, Mexico’s weak economy Argentines head to the polls on Sunday in crucial mid-term elections that will determine the future of President Milei's stabilisation programme. A poor showing for his La Libertad Avanza party would... 24th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US defence talks, Egypt-IMF deal, Morocco 2026 Budget The US and Saudi Arabia have stepped up security talks ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next month. A full defence pact is unlikely to materialise, however, given... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
