Climate Economics Monthly Tariffs and green tech; Canada’s “carbon tax” election New US tariffs announced this month will raise the cost of green technologies and add to the growing list of headwinds facing the green transition under President Trump. Meanwhile, the Liberals’... 30th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Five questions on Romania’s rescheduled election This Update answers five key questions on Romania’s rescheduled presidential election, the first round of which takes place on Sunday 4th May. A victory for far-right frontrunner George Simion would... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update The economic impact of rising tensions in Kashmir Provided it was limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the overall economy of either country. The closing of the only land trade... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia-Ukraine peace talks, CEE fiscal deficits The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine will be to... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: JD Vance in India, Kashmir, flash PMIs, dovish RBI US Vice President JD Vance was in India this week talking up progress on a potential trade deal as well as hailing the strength of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, India’s... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 2025) The meeting readout signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that existing plans for fiscal spending will be accelerated. It stopped short of committing to additional deficit... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update IMF & World Bank meet in Trump’s shadow The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A primer on Australia’s general election The upcoming federal election on 3rd May appears likely to result in a hung parliament. Although the ruling Labor party’s recent uptick in the polls suggest that it is in pole position to form a... 16th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere? Punitive tariffs have the potential to cause a substantial fall in US imports from China – a 60% tariff, for example, could cut imports from China by about a third over the next two years, with... 15th April 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China offloading its dollar assets? Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still... 14th April 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update German politics: good intentions but challenges ahead This week’s coalition agreement sets the stage for a substantial fiscal stimulus which should eventually get Germany’s economy growing again. But the new government will have to deal with new... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
