Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Middle East conflict: the state of play The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non... · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: no appetite for conventional fiscal tightening Colombian President Petro’s recently published draft pension decree would, if implemented, reduce the government’s financing needs. But it won’t make much of a dent in the large budget deficit and... · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the Middle East conflict means for world trade The conflict in the Middle East threatens not only energy trade but also other trade flows, albeit to a lesser extent. The risk to container shipping is limited by the fact that the region was already... · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s rebalancing conundrum A major policy push to boost domestic demand would both reflate China’s economy and reduce its large current account surplus, which is a source of tension with other countries. But this looks unlikely... · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement: Extra headroom may soon be wiped out The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the autumn. But that could be swamped by... · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Chancellor’s Fiscal Statement (3rd Mar. 2026) For more detailed analysis see here. The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the... · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back... · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Iran shock and Asia As net energy importers, most economies in Asia are worse off and facing higher inflation as a result of the attacks on Iran. But oil prices would have to rise much further than they have so far – to... · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist... · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response US and Israel strike Iran The economic fallout from the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran today will depend on how long the conflict lasts, the scale of Iranian retaliation and the spillovers to the oil market. A limited... · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour feeling Green, AI optimism, near-term jobs risks The government’s loss in this week’s by-election may raise the chances of looser fiscal policy than otherwise, higher gilt yields than otherwise and a lower pound than otherwise. Meanwhile, the risks... · 5 mins read
