Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB’s dovish shift, Russia & oil prices, Ukraine’s loan The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lobito rail project, oil prices Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three things to watch in 2026 Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least... 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional GDP growth will slow next year, which combined with softer inflation... 15th December 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What Kast’s victory means for Chile Chilean markets appear to have largely already priced in José Antonio Kast’s victory in the second round of the presidential election yesterday – and the prospect of stronger public finances and more... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand-Cambodia conflict: assessing the fallout The economic fallout from renewed border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia should remain modest. Trade between the two countries is small, and Thailand’s tourism sector should be insulated given... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer slowdown, the “Trump Corollary” GDP data from Brazil released this week showed that the economy slowed in Q3 - a trend we expect to continue into 2026. While the Selic rate is all but certain to be left on hold on Wednesday, the... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Electoral forks in the road Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large... 4th December 2025 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Strengthening growth and shifting alignments The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s... 4th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus Assessing data quality in advanced economies While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other... 1st December 2025 · 21 mins read
