Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Brazil’s markets respond to the election? The experience from Brazil’s 2018 and 2022 elections is that a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would support equities (a boost of 10-20% seems plausible) and pull local currency bond yields down sharply... 28th September 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update US-China tariff tweaks don’t change the bigger picture The US and China have announced significant tariff cuts on goods covered by the new bilateral Board of Trade. But the scheme only covers “non-sensitive” goods that make up a small share of China’s... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly President Xi’s US visit: Little beyond a short reprieve The lack of any tangible outcomes from the Trump-Xi summit, beyond a shorter-than-expected extension of the current trade truce, highlights the deep distrust between the two sides. While more... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s next government faces a fiscal reckoning Brazil’s next government will inherit a fiscal position that requires fiscal tightening to the tune of 3.0% of GDP to stabilise the public debt ratio. A Bolsonaro victory would offer a path towards... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms 2026: What’s at stake? The big risk after the midterms is that emboldened Democrats try to leverage the debt ceiling to achieve their policy aims, raising the possibility of a debt default. Admittedly, Republicans may lift... 21st September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Carney opts for diversification over retaliation Ottawa sent a clear message this week that it will not engage in further escalation of the trade war with the US, looking past the recently announced import ban to instead focus on opportunities... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s markets wobble, Russians head to the polls The stress experienced by some Turkish investment funds this week appears to have been contained, but it has exposed Turkey’s sensitivity to a reversal in foreign capital flows. An interest rate cut... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly President Xi’s US visit: What’s on the table? We doubt that next Thursday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington will deliver any major breakthroughs that change the trajectory of US-China relations. The two leaders will discuss a... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fresh doubts over Indonesia’s commitment to fiscal rules Prabowo’s decision to sack Indonesia’s Finance Minister Purbaya at the start of the week initially raised hopes of a return to more orthodox policymaking, particularly after his replacement, Suahasil... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil and US tariffs: the stakes are higher this time It's not clear that President Trump will implement a tariff on buyers of Russian oil following the US House's passage of legislation this week, given that it would cause further tightening in the oil... 18th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s growth boom has run out of road The cyclical factors that drove Brazil’s strong post-pandemic growth have now been exhausted, and we think there will be a much sharper slowdown than most expect over the coming years. GDP growth is... 17th September 2026 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on Russia’s Duma election Russians head to the polls from Friday in the country’s first parliamentary election since the invasion of Ukraine. While the outcome is not in doubt, the result will offer clues about public... 16th September 2026 · 5 mins read
