Latin America Economics Focus Counting the cost of crime in Latin America Growing public concerns about high crime levels and the apparent success of El Salvador in reducing levels of violence are making law and order a key issue in Latin America’s busy electoral calendar... 16th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Prabowo risks deepening Indonesia’s economic problems The recent protests in Indonesia underscore deep-seated economic frustrations. Despite solid headline GDP growth in recent years, wages have been stagnant and the middle class has been shrinking... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks a distraction from bearish oil market fundamentals The news flow and price reaction in the oil market this week, with oil prices rising in the first half of the week as a result of geopolitical risks and falling later on following the assessment of... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian drones in Poland, Romania’s fiscal tightening The incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace this week will, and at the very least, support Polish policymakers' efforts to continue raising defence spending. That said, the macro impact of... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Change in Japan's government won’t keep BoJ from hiking Markets appear concerned that Prime Minister Ishiba’s successor will put pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low. But available precedents suggest that the Bank would not be easily... 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia’s Finance Minister Removed The removal of Indonesia’s well-respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani from her post will raise concerns that, in the wake of recent protests in the country, President Prabowo Subianto will seek to... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation concerns should pass Outside of China, there is no immediate threat of any other country in Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation. Nevertheless, inflation across the region should remain low, which will give... 5th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia protests: assessing the economic fallout The latest bout of unrest in Indonesia is unlikely to deliver a significant blow to the economy, but it is a symptom of underlying economic weaknesses and highlights political risks that could erode... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
