Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: election to decide fiscal deficit path We expect Hungary’s budget deficit to widen towards 5.5% of GDP this year on account of pre-election stimulus, continued soft GDP growth and higher debt interest costs. Regardless of the election... 8th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three key challenges for Peru’s next president While the latest polls suggest that the race for Peru’s presidency remains open, a highly fragmented legislature looks the most likely outcome whoever wins. Navigating a divided congress will be a key... 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rebalancing Vietnam’s economy under new leadership Vietnam’s export-led growth model faces a pivotal political moment, with To Lam confirmed today as the country’s next president. His elevation consolidates the Communist Party’s leadership at a time... 7th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart pack - Iran Conflict Edition (April 2026) The impact of the surge in energy prices on the global economy will depend on the extent of any disruption to energy flows, which remains highly uncertain. Europe and Asia are more exposed than the US... 2nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s frozen funds hang on a Tisza supermajority A victory for the opposition Tisza party in Hungary’s upcoming election on 12th April could open the door to the institutional reforms required to unlock frozen EU funds. But many of PM Orbán’s... 1st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Potential implications of a regime change in Cuba The macroeconomic implications of regime change in Cuba – in whatever form – are likely to remain limited beyond Cuba’s own economy, given that the island does not play a major role on the global... 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Few signs of fuel subsidies, the right on the rise Governments in Latin America, unlike those in other parts of the emerging world, have generally refrained from large fiscal measures to shield households and businesses from higher energy prices... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Forecasting through the fog of war A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to know on energy markets & demand destruction With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. Indeed, euro-zone imports from China have... 23rd March 2026 (Updated 30th March 2026) · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy shortages rather than prices the imminent threat for India Regulated prices insulate consumers in India from surges in global energy prices but they are no protection against – and, indeed, they contribute to – shortages of fuels and related products. We’ve... 20th March 2026 · 5 mins read
