Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: the next hurdles for unlocking EU funds The European Commission’s agreement in principle to unlock €16.4bn of frozen EU funds marks a major step forward for Hungary and would significantly improve the economic outlook. But disbursement is... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The price of free time in Latin America Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most... 2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: what to expect from Abiy’s next term Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party will almost certainly win the election taking place today but the next administration faces a host of challenges. The government still... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update De la Espriella in pole position but faces hurdles The strong showing for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election will be welcomed by investors. A further rally in the peso and a decline in... 1st June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe gradually getting tougher on China Today’s gathering of European Commissioners will prepare the ground for a further tightening of European trade defences against China. However, differences of opinion between European governments and... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Hukou reform is no panacea for weak consumption Chinese policymakers have already improved rural migrants’ access to urban public services considerably over the past decade. The latest State Council plan is a continuation of those efforts rather... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly US tariffs on China set to rise again The Trump administration has signalled that it still intends to impose new Section 301 duties on China to replace the IEEPA tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court. This looks set to more... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The impact of the China shock on Japan’s economy Japan has weathered the China shock well so far, largely because the sharp weakening of the yen has kept Japanese exports competitive. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to keep weakening rapidly... 18th May 2026 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA impeachment, Angola & Zambia rate cuts This week’s restart of impeachment proceedings against South Africa’s President Ramaphosa threatens to stall the government’s reform agenda and, in turn, harm the prospect of achieving sustained GDP... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil inflation, COP drop, Venezuela’s restructuring The latest macro data keep the door open to monetary easing in Brazil, but a rise in energy prices or an escalation of the scandal involving presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro that weighs more... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political uncertainty may stifle economy for rest of the year The way things are going at the moment, it is possible that we won't know whether or not Starmer will be removed as Prime Minister and, if he is, who will replace him until mid-August. And if there is... 15th May 2026 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update Trump-Xi summit: Truce continues, substance lacking While we are still waiting for full details on what was agreed at the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, it seems mostly just to have cemented the existing trade truce. This should ensure near... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t take a deal at face value, AI investment ramps up A key outcome of President Trump’s previous trip to China in 2017 was a package of “trade and investment deals” that the White House valued at more than $250bn. But the bulk of these deals never... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Talks at another impasse as Iran hardens stance on Strait Talks between the US and Iran have reached another impasse and it’s difficult at this stage to see where a breakthrough will come, especially as the Iranian regime appears to be hardening its stance... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal crossroads: continuity or austerity? A victory for left-wing Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential election would probably continue the Petro government’s track record of running large budget deficits, causing Colombia’s sovereign risk... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
