Commodities Update

Oil market implications of US-India rapprochement

Warming US-India relations, centred around an agreement for India to purchase less Russian oil, risks tightening the global oil market. However, we aren’t convinced that India will curtail imports...

4th February 2026 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Will Lula go on a pre-election spending spree?

The balance of probabilities is tilted towards Brazil avoiding major additional pre-election fiscal loosening (and the resulting backlash in financial markets). As a result, we think the Selic rate...

4th February 2026 · 14 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth

The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier...

4th February 2026 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Focus

Thailand: economic woes to continue after election

Whichever party wins Thailand’s general election on 8th February will inherit a weak economy, tight fiscal constraints, and deep-seated structural and demographic challenges. The continued shift...

2nd February 2026 · 17 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mozambique’s gas project, South Africa auto tariffs

Mozambique announced that construction on its Cabo Delgado gas mega-project will restart, but the billions of dollars in revenue that it will bring are some years away, keeping crisis risks high in...

30th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency boost, rate meetings, Costa Rica votes

Latin American economies stand out as potential beneficiaries of the fall in the dollar this week. A the margin, it will help to bring down inflation and may make central banks more confident about...

30th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

French bond rally looks overdone

The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of...

30th January 2026 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks

Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those...

30th January 2026 · 10 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

An LDP majority will not be fiscally profligate

New polling suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is on track to secure an outright majority in the lower house following elections on February 8th. Although there have been concerns in...

30th January 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The dollar and MENA, US-Iran tensions, Saudi project delays

This year's dollar rout has taken Gulf currencies down too, but the impact on inflation is likely to be small - and inflation is very low in any case. Elsewhere, Egypt stands to be a beneficiary from...

29th January 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

What if the US strikes Iran (again)?

The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this...

29th January 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2026)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP...

29th January 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year

Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal...

28th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

MSCI threat adds to Indonesia’s woes

The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling...

28th January 2026 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Benefits of India-EU trade deal shouldn’t be underplayed

It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the...

27th January 2026 · 3 mins read