Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s central bank governor race & rate cuts, Dubai’s boom

The term of the incumbent Central Bank of Egypt governor, Hassan Abdalla, is due to expire next week and, while it is not yet clear if Mr. Abdalla will be kept on or a successor appointed, it will be...

14th August 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess?

Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the...

13th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS?

President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the...

12th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

“Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream

Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in...

12th August 2025 · 14 mins read

Asia Economics Update

The Philippines: Marcos Jr.’s mid-term scorecard

Three years into his six-year term, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has passed key reforms to improve the country’s business environment and infrastructure. However, worries about...

12th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war

The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could...

11th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB

The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial...

8th August 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump tees up a fresh twist for the oil market

OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just...

8th August 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Can India wean itself off Russian oil?

India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases...

5th August 2025 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour

The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a...

1st August 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

New US tariff regime still not the end of the story

President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest...

1st August 2025 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side

The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or...

30th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon

Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated...

30th July 2025 · 19 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance

The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And...

29th July 2025 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions

We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of...

29th July 2025 · 5 mins read