Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt cabinet reshuffle, Saudi Vision 2030 This week’s cabinet reshuffle in Egypt has largely kept the status quo as the government seeks to affirm to the IMF and foreign investors its commitment to macro orthodoxy, whilst changes alongside... 12th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand votes for stability, but growth to stay weak Thailand’s election result should help reduce political risk in the near term but does little to change the challenging economic outlook. The real test for the next government will be whether it can... 8th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s DA leadership battle, AGOA is extended While the South African Democratic Alliance's change in leadership in April is unlikely to affect the stability of the Government of National Unity, there are key risks ahead including municipal... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly China-Panama rupture, precious metals & Lat Am The Panamanian Supreme Court’s decision to annul the licences that allowed a Hong Kong based firm to operate in the Panama Canal has been met with a backlash from China. While it’s not clear if China... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Sizing up the oil risk premium Estimating the oil market risk premium is more art than science, but our sense is that it is currently in the region of $5-8pb. Looking ahead, were the US to conduct limited military strikes against... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s GDP rebound, Asian elections in focus Q4 GDP growth in Indonesia surprised on the upside at 5.4% y/y, the fastest pace since 2022 and a rare break from the strikingly narrow growth range seen over the past two years. However, given... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran talks, Qatar’s LNG push, Saudi opens up The US and Iran enter negotiations tomorrow, but relations between the two are fragile and there's a high risk that talks break down, which could result in fresh US military strikes on Iran. Elsewhere... 5th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Why this election matters for Bangladesh The upcoming election on 12th February will be pivotal for Bangladesh as the country seeks to restore stability following the 2024 political crisis and place the economy on a more sustainable footing... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market implications of US-India rapprochement Warming US-India relations, centred around an agreement for India to purchase less Russian oil, risks tightening the global oil market. However, we aren’t convinced that India will curtail imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Lula go on a pre-election spending spree? The balance of probabilities is tilted towards Brazil avoiding major additional pre-election fiscal loosening (and the resulting backlash in financial markets). As a result, we think the Selic rate... 4th February 2026 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
