Canada Economics Focus Trudeaunomics is dead, whatever happens Recent shifts in the polls suggest new Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre are both in with a decent chance of winning the forthcoming general election. The... 10th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters still face hit despite tariff exemption The US tariff exemption for USMCA-compliant goods still leaves considerable uncertainty for the economy because less than 40% of exports to the US last year were formally USMCA compliant. The share... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Outlook Climate Economics Outlook: Technical progress outweighs political pushback The push back against the costs of climate policy, alongside the fracturing of the global economy, risks raising the cost of the green transition and slowing progress reducing emissions this decade... 6th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with more tariffs President Donald Trump’s has claimed that there is “no room left’ for Canada and Mexico to avoid the imposition of 25% across-the-board tariffs at midnight tonight and he has reportedly signed a... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Peace talks, gas flows & defence spending President Putin this week described Moscow’s initial contact with the Trump administration as “inspiring a certain degree of hope” and, as we explained in an in-depth piece, an end to the war with... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget dispute, Russia-Ukraine and Africa, G20 South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the 2025 Budget in less than two weeks, but the past few days have only underlined the widening divide between the two main parties of the... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Seven points on the UK-US trade deal The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
