China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated... 30th July 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai-Cambodia border clashes, more trade deals agreed Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia have led to falls in Thai financial markets, but the broader economic fallout should be modest. Other risks, which include deflation, political uncertainty... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update LDP election defeat points to looser fiscal policy in Japan With Japan’s ruling coalition losing its majority in the Upper House, fiscal policy may be loosened over the coming months. However, we think that the outlook for monetary policy will be a more... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria inflation, South Africa G20 & low inflation Nigeria’s inflation slowed again last month, and we think high real interest rates and a stable naira will allow disinflation to continue. The surprise rise in core inflation, however, is likely to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lula and Trump up the ante The USTR’s opening of a Section 301 investigation into Brazil this week and Lula’s fiery rhetoric in response makes it even harder to see a way in which Brazil avoids punitive US tariffs. The hit to... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s legislature could flip behind the president Taiwan’s gridlocked government could secure a legislative majority and freedom to enact its policy goals if recall votes next week go its way. The immediate implications for the economy are limited –... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update What happens if Trump fires Powell? The market reaction yesterday provided a taste of what might be to come if President Trump followed through his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the dollar, equities and short rates likely... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is Japan’s fiscal situation reaching a breaking point? 23rd July 2025, 9:00AM BST The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face
Event Asia Drop-In: Big policy tests for China, India and Indonesia 25th September 2025, 9:00AM BST Asia ex-Japan’s three biggest economies are each grappling with major policy tests.
Event Drop-In: Another French government falls – what next for its economy and markets? 6th October 2025, 3:00PM BST The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook.
Event Drop-In: US–China trade tensions anew – A high-stakes game of chicken 14th October 2025, 3:00PM BST Is the latest flare-up in US–China relations simply brinkmanship ahead of a planned Trump–Xi meeting later this month, or a sign of structural tensions that point to a re-escalation of the trade wa
Event Asia Drop-In: Indonesia in turmoil – Macro and market implications 9th September 2025, 8:00AM BST The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories.
