China Economics Weekly Millions are about to see their take-home pay fall From 1st September onwards, companies in China and their employees will no longer be able to avoid making social security contributions. This will pave the way for higher pay-outs over the medium-term... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Don't let a good crisis go to waste Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27th August deadline. But policymakers are using the threat that tariffs pose to the economy to... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Event UK Budget Roundtable – How will the economy and markets take the Chancellor’s second Budget? 12th November 2025, 9:00AM GMT Will the Chancellor’s second Budget be as big and as bad for the economy as her first? Will it dampen or ignite the gilt market’s fiscal fears?
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed inching closer to rate cuts Ahead of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which kicks off late next week, markets are still wholly convinced that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September and... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: All eyes on Alaska as Trump and Putin take centre stage The scheduled meeting between presidents Trump and Putin later today has focused attention on whether there will be any positive news to end the war in Ukraine, but developments over the course of... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s central bank governor race & rate cuts, Dubai’s boom The term of the incumbent Central Bank of Egypt governor, Hassan Abdalla, is due to expire next week and, while it is not yet clear if Mr. Abdalla will be kept on or a successor appointed, it will be... 14th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess? Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS? President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines: Marcos Jr.’s mid-term scorecard Three years into his six-year term, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has passed key reforms to improve the country’s business environment and infrastructure. However, worries about... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump tees up a fresh twist for the oil market OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just... 8th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
