India Economics Update

How might India push back against Chinese imports?

India’s goods trade deficit with China is now at a record high. This largely reflects rising goods imports from China which, while bringing economic benefits in some areas, are also raising concerns...

25th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf

The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is...

23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am

While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian...

20th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Iran: conflict scenarios and spillovers

The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is...

20th June 2025 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: Oil price risk to inflation, infrastructure spending hype

With UK inflation still some way above the 2.0% target, it probably wouldn’t require the conflict in the Middle East to cause a leap in the oil price all the way to $130-150 per barrel to prompt the...

20th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict

Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in...

19th June 2025 · 8 mins read

Global Economics Update

Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios

This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is...

18th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Iran conflict: the macro, geopolitical and oil market fallout

The Israel-Iran conflict has continued to escalate. This Update summarises how our views on the macro impact have evolved over the past few days and answers the most frequently asked client questions...

16th June 2025 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Tariff impact remains uncertain

The impacts of tariffs were notably limited in May's CPI and PPI data. However, these impacts may be just around the corner, with firms running down inventory and the potential for a rebound in US...

13th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget

China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders...

13th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports

The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further...

13th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation

Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened...

13th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact

The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced...

13th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Israel-Iran fears, Red Sea investment, Saudi Q1 GDP

Worries of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran and/or its proxies drove a jump in oil prices on Wednesday, but the fallout for the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies should be limited...

12th June 2025 · 8 mins read

Global Economics Update

Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word

President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But...

12th June 2025 · 3 mins read