Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand-Cambodia conflict: assessing the fallout The economic fallout from renewed border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia should remain modest. Trade between the two countries is small, and Thailand’s tourism sector should be insulated given... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer slowdown, the “Trump Corollary” GDP data from Brazil released this week showed that the economy slowed in Q3 - a trend we expect to continue into 2026. While the Selic rate is all but certain to be left on hold on Wednesday, the... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Electoral forks in the road Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large... 4th December 2025 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Strengthening growth and shifting alignments The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s... 4th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus Assessing data quality in advanced economies While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other... 1st December 2025 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A path to peace? The revised peace plan worked on by the US and Ukraine in Geneva last Sunday has the potential to result in a more balanced framework to end the war in Ukraine than looked likely last week, but we... 28th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly US-Africa relations, Ghana and Nigeria rates, SARB FSR US rhetoric toward Africa hardened this week, with fresh funding threats and tighter immigration measures. As Washington’s ties with the region deteriorate, China and middle players like the UAE... 28th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slowdown, Honduras voting for Trump or Xi GDP data from Brazil due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy contracted in Q3, which, combined with the recent fall in inflation and inflation expectations, supports our view that... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor puts MPs and the markets ahead of growth In this week’s Budget, the Chancellor pulled off the delicate balancing act of not upsetting Labour MPs, who wanted higher spending, and investors, who wanted to see fiscal discipline. But the... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defence spending boost, Sri Lanka rates on hold Taiwan’s President William Lai this week unveiled a TWD1.25trn (4.5% of GDP) special defence budget but it is likely that this will be watered down by the opposition-controlled parliament. Even if it... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
