Africa Economics Weekly US-Africa relations, Ghana and Nigeria rates, SARB FSR US rhetoric toward Africa hardened this week, with fresh funding threats and tighter immigration measures. As Washington’s ties with the region deteriorate, China and middle players like the UAE... 28th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slowdown, Honduras voting for Trump or Xi GDP data from Brazil due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy contracted in Q3, which, combined with the recent fall in inflation and inflation expectations, supports our view that... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor puts MPs and the markets ahead of growth In this week’s Budget, the Chancellor pulled off the delicate balancing act of not upsetting Labour MPs, who wanted higher spending, and investors, who wanted to see fiscal discipline. But the... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defence spending boost, Sri Lanka rates on hold Taiwan’s President William Lai this week unveiled a TWD1.25trn (4.5% of GDP) special defence budget but it is likely that this will be watered down by the opposition-controlled parliament. Even if it... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the economic limits to the relationship have become increasingly clear. Chinese FDI in Russia remains low, bilateral trade is... 25th November 2025 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26 th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Worsening relations with the US, SARB rate cut Both South Africa and Nigeria have seen diplomatic relations with the US become more strained this week, although for now domestic dynamics should continue to support a more positive growth outlook in... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI independence concerns resurface, Philippines corruption The invitation extended to Indonesia’s finance minister this week to attend monetary policy meetings is not unheard of among global central banks, but the move will reinforce concerns that BI’s... 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MbS’s Washington trip tips the balance in US’s favour Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the US this week secured security, nuclear, mineral, and AI deals which will pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence towards the US. 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Has France’s RN turned moderate? As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely... 20th November 2025 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2026 After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of... 18th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-US tensions, Brazil’s rare earths, Chile votes A military engagement between the US and Venezuela might push oil prices higher (although we suspect the move would be limited), lead to renewed migration outflows and harden pro- or anti-US stances... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
