Event Drop-In: Egypt one year on – A progress report on the big policy shift 6th March 2025, 11:00AM GMT March 6 will mark one year since Egypt embarked on a dramatic shift back to orthodox policymaking. So far, the authorities have stuck to most of their pledges. But has enough been done to deliver...
Event EM Drop-in: The Russia-Ukraine war – The macro and market implications of an end to fighting 1738767600 Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he’d stop the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, and nearly three years after Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s border, an end to fightin
Global Economics Update What if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico? This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s threat to Putin, CBRT easing, CEE growth Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with... 24th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria oil and BRICS, Mozambique LNG delay Nigeria recently became the BRICS group's latest "partner" member, adding to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. But that... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs, transit fees, and terrorists The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America plenty to fret about. The 25% import tariff threatened on Mexico (as well as Canada) would, if implemented, hit the... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi-US relations already warming under Trump Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US already appear to be on a stronger footing during Donald Trump’s first few days in office, adding to signs that it’s drift towards China is over. The Kingdom... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions... 23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency? The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will... 23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What a Coalition victory would mean for Australia We suspect that a Coalition government would run slightly tighter fiscal policy than Labor, which in turn may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen monetary policy a bit more aggressively... 22nd January 2025 · 18 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: The disunited provinces of Canada The federal government is planning to fight US tariffs with tariffs, but reports this week suggest that those would cover a far smaller value of goods than the US is likely to hit. The government has... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
