India Economics Weekly

New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications

Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the...

14th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

The risks from escalating tensions with China

There is a risk that the recent tensions with China escalate into a full-blown trade spat akin to the conflict around the Senkaku islands in the early 2010s. There are several avenues through which...

14th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Shifting geopolitical allegiances, IMF to visit Egypt

The meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump next week is widely expected to see the announcement of a new security deal and the US’s partnership in the...

13th November 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Higher defence spending in EMs: the macro impact

Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take...

11th November 2025 · 13 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What’s at stake in Chile’s election?

The latest polls suggest that a right-wing candidate is likely to win Chile’s presidential election on 16th November, probably leading to more pro-business policymaking and a tighter fiscal stance...

10th November 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Can Brazil become a major rare earths player?

Brazil has the second largest rare earth deposits on the planet but negligible production. Interest in rare earth mining in Brazil has surged in the past couple of years, although it will take time...

10th November 2025 · 14 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s election, delayed cuts in Brazil and Colombia

Chile's presidential race is entering the final straight, with the latest polls suggesting that the most likely outcome is a victory for left-wing candidate Jara in the first round, but a win for...

7th November 2025 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Lower growth targets, more barriers to foreign chips

China’s leadership appears to be quietly de-emphasizing a target to double the size of the country’s economy between 2020 and 2035, focusing instead on a slightly less ambitious per capita goal that...

7th November 2025 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Philippines: corruption scandal weighing on growth

The latest data confirm that the corruption scandal is having a severe impact on the Philippines economy, increasing the chances of the central bank cutting rates at its next meeting in December.

7th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Trump takes aim at Nigeria, build up to MTBPS

Nigeria became the latest country to face President Trump's wrath this week. For now, there are reasons to think that any economic impact will be limited. But it’s another reason for African...

7th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE keeps up Gulf AI momentum, Qatar-Egypt deal

AI-related investments in the UAE this week add to signs that the US is using access to AI technologies to take the Gulf economies away from China’s sphere of influence. It may also reflect the...

6th November 2025 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process

The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned...

5th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges

Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to...

5th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Investors cheer Milei’s win, Brazil’s soybeans

The strong showing for Milei's LLA party in Argentina's mid-term elections last Sunday has led to a sharp improvement in sentiment and should ease pressure on the peso in the near-term. But the risk...

31st October 2025 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Tariff cut isn’t the biggest trade truce win for China

The halving of fentanyl tariffs won’t have much of an impact on China's economy. More consequential for China is the suspension of the Entity List Affiliates Rule, which buys thousands of firms time...

31st October 2025 · 6 mins read