India Economics Weekly

Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities

For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads

Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone

China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany

It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Insufficient climate finance risks supply hit in EMs

The failure of COP29 to deliver on ambitious climate finance targets means that developing economies still lack sufficient low-cost finance for climate adaption. That leaves them reliant on debt-based...

27th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry

One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect...

27th November 2024 · 29 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow...

27th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Presidential Election (First Round)

The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking...

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching?

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against...

22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s challenging budget, G20 summit

The sharp reduction in the budget deficit envisaged in Mexico’s draft budget for 2025 will have been welcomed as a sign that the new Sheinbaum administration is taking fiscal discipline seriously. But...

22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read

Climate Economics Update

What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy?

Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Air pollution, friendshoring, Governor Das to stay?

Air quality levels in India have been among the worst on record this week and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. Otherwise...

22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance

Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers...

21st November 2024 · 22 mins read