Global Economics Chart Pack – Iran Conflict Edition (March 2026)

The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a major shock to energy flows from the region, sending prices of oil and natural gas soaring. Shipments of petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz have ground to a halt, which, if this continues will weigh most heavily on Asian economies and Europe. The impact on global growth and inflation will hinge on the scale and duration of higher energy prices, which remains highly uncertain. As things stand, the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to a swift end and energy supplies normalise, which would have a limited impact on global GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy. But an extreme scenario in which the conflict persists for several months and energy infrastructure is damaged could push the global economy into stagflation, prompting rate hikes in most economies.