Energy prices plunged following the announcement of the ceasefire earlier in the week, but the fragile status of the truce and the fact that very few ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the meantime have caused prices to creep back up since. Our proprietary indicator based on the options market shows that traders are still putting a 20% chance of triple-digit Brent in three months’ time, down from a 35% chance two weeks ago. Looking ahead, Iran’s efforts to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will encourage the region’s producers to expand and to explore alternative export routes in the future.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services