Commodities Weekly Spectre of hawkish Fed and AI jitters to haunt gold prices At just under $4,000 per oz at the time of writing, gold prices are now back to where they were last Halloween, and ~25% below the peak of the rally reached in late-February. With the bursting of the... 30th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly When is an oil risk premium a risk premium? Many commentators have attributed the recent rise in oil prices to an increase in the oil risk premium. While rising geopolitical risks have certainly contributed to the rally, attributing it all to a... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy markets are learning to live with conflict The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly G7’s oil plans are more peashooter than bazooka While the recent joint statement by the G7 succeeded in taking oil product export bans off the table for now , it stopped short of providing an additional boost to global petroleum supplies over and... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Why aren’t crude prices lower?; EU mulls diesel release Despite the pick-up in crude oil exports from the Middle East in late September, market participants appear to be factoring in a larger risk of crude flows falling back again than they did during the... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly US diesel ban; crude scarcity; China’s copper squeeze The prospect of a US ban on diesel exports threatens to make a bad situation worse, especially as signs of physical scarcity in the crude oil market have emerged. Our sense is that while the White... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lessons from the pipeline attack; the Fed and commodities The net impact of the recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could even feasibly result in slightly higher oil flows over time. But the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Physical tightness driving oil prices; Iraq-xit on the cards? The fact that the spot price of Brent crude has risen faster and further than the front-month contract this week highlights the increasing strains in the physical oil market, and how the current bad... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Separating fact from fiction on Venezuela’s oil The deal reached by the US government to secure greater access to Venezuela’s oil reserves won’t provide a quick fix to Venezuela’s ailing oil industry nor the current bout of high prices. Other... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The good, the bad and the ugly in the oil market Reports that more crude oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns about the availability of crude oil supply. Reasons for caution remain, though, as the White House's... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Crack spreads nearing a peak?; gold shines; El Niño looms While we suspect that the upward pressure on oil product price spreads could soon start to ease, this does not mean that they will necessarily come back down quickly. And even if spreads stabilise... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Setting the record “Strait”; TTF prices could remain hot While conflicting estimates of oil flows out of the Gulf have made it harder to assess the health of the global oil market, the path towards our base case for Brent crude prices to end this year at... 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil traders still unsure; the US-yen intervention & gold While the progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman have raised hopes of a future recovery of oil exports from the Middle East, Iran's clear desires to exert control over the Strait is a... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to press ahead; oil traders look on bright side of life OPEC+ looks set to agree on another hike in output quotas this weekend. But the resetting of members’ baseline quotas promises to bring internal tensions and the erosion of cohesion within the group... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Back to square one in the oil market At this stage, we still consider that the escalation in the war between the US and Iran is consistent with our baseline view that the recovery in oil flows would be bumpy and punctuated by flare-ups... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
