Commodities Weekly Back to square one in the oil market At this stage, we still consider that the escalation in the war between the US and Iran is consistent with our baseline view that the recovery in oil flows would be bumpy and punctuated by flare-ups... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly A recipe for oil (and fuel) price volatility While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gasoline prices still pumped up; China LNG buying heats up While President Trump has accused gasoline retailers of price gouging and called for lower prices, disruptions to global refining activity – particularly in Russia – may prevent gasoline prices from... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly From bad to worse for gold; Iraq the next to leave OPEC? Gold has been caught up in the souring of risk sentiment towards AI-related assets, and its strengthening correlation with equities is one reason why we think gold prices have further to fall in the... 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027 Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Central bank goldbugs; Godzilla El Niño Gold has overtaken US Treasuries in accounting for the largest share of foreign reserves held be central banks, according to an ECB report, underlining just how strong central banks' appetite for gold... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The art of (looking beyond) the deal Oil prices have fallen throughout the week in anticipation of the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but while re-opening the Strait is a necessary step towards normality in the global... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The tricky task of tracking oil demand If anybody hoped that the latest monthly reports from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC would provide clarity about how much oil demand has fallen since the start of the Iran war, they would have sadly been... 15th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market has been scarred by the supply shock While an agreement between the US and Iran to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz could pave the way for another leg down in oil prices, supply conditions could remain tight for several months while... 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Strait reopens; how energy markets are adapting to war Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has led to a slump in oil prices and offers a path to the resumption of... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Unpicking the energy market implications of the ceasefire Energy prices plunged following the announcement of the ceasefire earlier in the week, but the fragile status of the truce and the fact that very few ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Iran conflict impact extends beyond energy commodities The risks to commodity prices from the conflict in the Middle East extend beyond oil and natural gas with aluminium plants in the Gulf sustaining damage. That could keep aluminium prices higher than... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
