Commodities Weekly UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Strait reopens; how energy markets are adapting to war Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has led to a slump in oil prices and offers a path to the resumption of... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Unpicking the energy market implications of the ceasefire Energy prices plunged following the announcement of the ceasefire earlier in the week, but the fragile status of the truce and the fact that very few ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Iran conflict impact extends beyond energy commodities The risks to commodity prices from the conflict in the Middle East extend beyond oil and natural gas with aluminium plants in the Gulf sustaining damage. That could keep aluminium prices higher than... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Certainty and conviction in short supply among energy execs The latest Dallas Fed survey suggests that US energy executives are cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook, but it also underlines how the lack of certainty is complicating investment... 27th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy market meltdown; gold failing to shine The attack on Qatar’s LNG export hub, which has knocked out 3-4% of global LNG supplies, grabbed the headlines and has caused natural gas and LNG prices to spike. On the face of it, there is some... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly The nightmare energy scenario cometh As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ poised to hike output again; cocoa craziness is over? Looking ahead to OPEC+’s meeting this weekend, the group seems poised to resume increasing its output quotas by 137,000 bpd in April. If geopolitical risk disperses, we think that up to $10pb of the... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil: geopolitics is the name of the game; what to make of it? Oil prices have firmly been in the grips of a geopolitical maelstrom this week, as tensions between the US and Iran have escalated once more. The price of Brent crude has risen by around 5% on the... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly EU carbon market rocked by politics; volatile “safe havens” EU carbon prices fell sharply this week on the back of calls by political and industry leaders to water down the EU Emissions Trading System. As we’ve highlighted before, this is a risk that could... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Sizing up the oil risk premium Estimating the oil market risk premium is more art than science, but our sense is that it is currently in the region of $5-8pb. Looking ahead, were the US to conduct limited military strikes against... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market The building tensions between Iran and the US have driven Brent crude prices to a six-month high. That said, we think that the historical example of last year’s 12-day war, and a well-supplied oil... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Arctic strikes back? In a week dominated by President Trump’s pursuit of Greenland, it is perhaps ironic that an anticipated blast of cold air from the Arctic has sent the price of natural gas in the US soaring. Henry Hub... 23rd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Higher EU gas prices won’t last; a 1970s-esque gold market? The fact that EU natural gas prices rallied this week, even after tensions in the Middle East had de-escalated, suggests that the prospect of cold weather and short covering by speculative investors... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
