Commodities Weekly Physical tightness driving oil prices; Iraq-xit on the cards? The fact that the spot price of Brent crude has risen faster and further than the front-month contract this week highlights the increasing strains in the physical oil market, and how the current bad... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Separating fact from fiction on Venezuela’s oil The deal reached by the US government to secure greater access to Venezuela’s oil reserves won’t provide a quick fix to Venezuela’s ailing oil industry nor the current bout of high prices. Other... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The good, the bad and the ugly in the oil market Reports that more crude oil has been traversing the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns about the availability of crude oil supply. Reasons for caution remain, though, as the White House's... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Crack spreads nearing a peak?; gold shines; El Niño looms While we suspect that the upward pressure on oil product price spreads could soon start to ease, this does not mean that they will necessarily come back down quickly. And even if spreads stabilise... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Setting the record “Strait”; TTF prices could remain hot While conflicting estimates of oil flows out of the Gulf have made it harder to assess the health of the global oil market, the path towards our base case for Brent crude prices to end this year at... 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil traders still unsure; the US-yen intervention & gold While the progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman have raised hopes of a future recovery of oil exports from the Middle East, Iran's clear desires to exert control over the Strait is a... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to press ahead; oil traders look on bright side of life OPEC+ looks set to agree on another hike in output quotas this weekend. But the resetting of members’ baseline quotas promises to bring internal tensions and the erosion of cohesion within the group... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Back to square one in the oil market At this stage, we still consider that the escalation in the war between the US and Iran is consistent with our baseline view that the recovery in oil flows would be bumpy and punctuated by flare-ups... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly A recipe for oil (and fuel) price volatility While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gasoline prices still pumped up; China LNG buying heats up While President Trump has accused gasoline retailers of price gouging and called for lower prices, disruptions to global refining activity – particularly in Russia – may prevent gasoline prices from... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly From bad to worse for gold; Iraq the next to leave OPEC? Gold has been caught up in the souring of risk sentiment towards AI-related assets, and its strengthening correlation with equities is one reason why we think gold prices have further to fall in the... 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027 Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Central bank goldbugs; Godzilla El Niño Gold has overtaken US Treasuries in accounting for the largest share of foreign reserves held be central banks, according to an ECB report, underlining just how strong central banks' appetite for gold... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The art of (looking beyond) the deal Oil prices have fallen throughout the week in anticipation of the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but while re-opening the Strait is a necessary step towards normality in the global... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
