Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly The nightmare energy scenario cometh As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ poised to hike output again; cocoa craziness is over? Looking ahead to OPEC+’s meeting this weekend, the group seems poised to resume increasing its output quotas by 137,000 bpd in April. If geopolitical risk disperses, we think that up to $10pb of the... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil: geopolitics is the name of the game; what to make of it? Oil prices have firmly been in the grips of a geopolitical maelstrom this week, as tensions between the US and Iran have escalated once more. The price of Brent crude has risen by around 5% on the... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly EU carbon market rocked by politics; volatile “safe havens” EU carbon prices fell sharply this week on the back of calls by political and industry leaders to water down the EU Emissions Trading System. As we’ve highlighted before, this is a risk that could... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Sizing up the oil risk premium Estimating the oil market risk premium is more art than science, but our sense is that it is currently in the region of $5-8pb. Looking ahead, were the US to conduct limited military strikes against... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market The building tensions between Iran and the US have driven Brent crude prices to a six-month high. That said, we think that the historical example of last year’s 12-day war, and a well-supplied oil... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Arctic strikes back? In a week dominated by President Trump’s pursuit of Greenland, it is perhaps ironic that an anticipated blast of cold air from the Arctic has sent the price of natural gas in the US soaring. Henry Hub... 23rd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Higher EU gas prices won’t last; a 1970s-esque gold market? The fact that EU natural gas prices rallied this week, even after tensions in the Middle East had de-escalated, suggests that the prospect of cold weather and short covering by speculative investors... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Greenland’s mineral potential; metal price mayhem Despite Greenland’s undoubted resource potential, the significant technical challenges and high costs associated operating on the island will surely limit the potential for sizeable production... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Taking stock, and looking ahead As 2025 draws to a close, our view that energy prices would fall has proved pleasingly accurate, with the price of Brent crude currently exactly in line with our long-standing forecast of $60pb and... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Surge in silver prices will go into reverse next year While some analysts have pinned the record-breaking silver rally on structural forces, we think the scale and speed of price increases suggest that market exuberance spilling over from the gold rally... 12th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Copper hits all time high but we expect prices to ease lower The rally in copper prices to an all-time high has its roots in rising supply concerns, particularly following the announcement by a group of Chinese smelters that they intend to cut output by 10% in... 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fall in EU natural gas prices has further to run The recent fall in the EU natural gas benchmark to below €30 per MWh has its roots in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but we are sceptical that any agreement would have much direct... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly War and peace in energy markets While crude oil and natural gas prices have fallen as the US attempts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, we think that the impact of a formal end to the war on prices would be... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Will the Orinoco (oil) flow? Nicolás Maduro has probably never heard of Enya, but he will nonetheless be hoping that the US naval build-up in the Caribbean simply sails away. Although a US military engagement with Venezuela could... 14th November 2025 · 4 mins read
