OPEC+ plays it safe; China’s oil stockpiling frenzy continues

The ongoing and sizeable build-up of oil stockpiles in China is helping to counteract underlying sluggish oil demand growth, and helps to explain why oil prices have not fallen as far as might have been expected since OPEC+’s pivot in April. At this stage, China’s oil stock building seems set to continue well into 2026 and poses upside risks to our below-consensus forecast for Brent crude to fall to $50pb by the end of next year.

We will be discussing what EU’s looming carbon border tax (CBAM) means for growth, trade and competitiveness in a Drop-In on Thursday 16th October at 1000 ET/1500 BST. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing.