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Key Forecasts
|
Main Economic & Market Forecasts |
|||||||||
|
%q/q annualised (%y/y), unless stated |
Latest |
Q1 2025 |
Q2 2025 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 |
2024f |
2025f |
2026f |
2027f |
|
Official GDP |
+4.9(+5.4)** |
(5.4) |
(5.3) |
(4.9) |
(4.3) |
(5.0) |
(4.8) |
(4.3) |
(3.8) |
|
GDP (CE CAP-derived estimates) |
+5.3(+4.3)* |
(3.8) |
(4) |
(4.1) |
(4) |
(4.5) |
(4.0) |
(3.5) |
(3.1) |
|
Consumer Prices |
(-0.1)*** |
(-0.1) |
(-0.1) |
(-0.6) |
(-0.2) |
(0.3) |
(-0.3) |
(-0.1) |
(0.2) |
|
Producer Prices |
(-2.5)*** |
(-2.6) |
(-5.1) |
(-3.9) |
(-2.6) |
(-1.9) |
(-3.5) |
(-1.3) |
(-1.0) |
|
Broad Credit (AFRE) |
(+8.4)*** |
(8.1) |
(8.3) |
(8.3) |
(8.4) |
(8) |
(8.4) |
(7.7) |
(7.1) |
|
Exports (US$) |
(+12.4)*** |
(5.5) |
(1.0) |
(-0.5) |
(-2.5) |
(6.0) |
(-1.0) |
(-1.0) |
(2.0) |
|
Imports (US$) |
(-4.3)*** |
(-6.5) |
(5.0) |
(3.5) |
(4.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.5) |
(1.0) |
(-1.0) |
|
RMB/$† |
7.29 |
7.47 |
7.65 |
7.82 |
8.00 |
7.30 |
8.00 |
8.00 |
7.80 |
|
7-day PBOC reverse repo† % |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.25 |
1.25 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
1.00 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
|
1-year Loan Prime Rate† (LPR) % |
3.10 |
3.10 |
2.85 |
2.85 |
2.60 |
3.10 |
2.60 |
2.40 |
2.40 |
|
1-year MLF Rate† % |
2.00 |
2.00 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.50 |
2.00 |
1.50 |
1.30 |
1.30 |
|
10-year Government Bond Yield†% |
1.67 |
1.90 |
1.65 |
1.85 |
1.50 |
1.69 |
1.50 |
1.40 |
1.40 |
|
RRR (major banks)† % |
9.50 |
9.50 |
9.00 |
9.00 |
8.75 |
9.50 |
8.75 |
8.25 |
8.25 |
|
CSI 300 Index† |
3,786 |
4,029 |
4,122 |
4,216 |
4,310 |
3,935 |
4,310 |
4,040 |
4,000 |
|
Hong Kong GDP |
+3.2(2.4)* |
(1.1) |
(1.6) |
(2.8) |
(2.6) |
(2.5) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(1.5) |
|
Hang Seng Index† |
22,036 |
20,060 |
21,420 |
22,780 |
24,140 |
20,059 |
25,500 |
23,900 |
23,900 |
|
Sources: LSEG Data and Analytics, CEIC, Capital Economics, *Q4, **Q1, ***March †End of period |
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Latest China Coverage
Featured Economists
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Mark Williams
Chief Asia Economist
Mark Williams is Capital Economics' Chief Asia Economist. He leads a team of macroeconomists covering the whole region, while paying particularly close attention himself to developments in China's economy and financial markets, and their implications for the rest of the world. Mark also works closely with William Jackson on the Emerging Markets Service looking at issues common to different parts of the emerging world. Mark has been with Capital Economics since 2007. He was previously Asia economist at HM Treasury, responsible for analysis of the risks and prospects in non-Japan Asia and prior to that lived and worked for several years in Taiwan. He speaks and reads Chinese and has degrees in Chinese and Economics from the universities of Edinburgh and Oxford.
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Julian Evans-Pritchard
Head of China Economics
Julian Evans-Pritchard joined Capital Economics in September 2013. Based in Singapore, Julian works with Mark Williams to cover the Chinese economy. He speaks and reads Chinese, and previously worked as a translator for Caixin, one of China’s leading financial news providers. Julian holds an undergraduate degree in mathematics and economics from the University of York and is currently pursuing a masters degree in economics at the National University of Singapore. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and a member of the Economic Society of Singapore.
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Zichun Huang
China Economist
Zichun Huang joined Capital Economics in May 2022 and she is a China Economist on our China service. She previously worked as an investment associate at an asset manager in Singapore and as a research fellow in Singapore Management University. She has a PhD degree in Economics from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, and a bachelor’s degree in Financial Engineering from Huazhong University of Science and Technology in China.
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Leah Fahy
China Economist
Leah is an Economist within our China team. She joined Capital Economics on the Graduate Scheme in 2022 and has also worked across the Global, Emerging Markets and Property services. She has an undergraduate degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Oxford, and is currently working towards her Masters in Economic History at the London School of Economics.