Service sector under pressure, demographics worsening

If the official GDP data are to be believed, quarter-on-quarter growth picked up in Q4, driven by stronger services activity. But this is at odds with other indicators, which point to weaker momentum in the service sector.

Births fell to their lowest level in the history of the PRC, undershooting mainstream projections. While marriages rose in 2025, this reflected administrative changes and any resulting rebound in births will be short-lived.