China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Still wary of welfare spending, an empty deal It's now nearly a year since China's leadership promised to "vigorously boost consumption" and the government this week released another policy document pledging more support for households. These... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Rare earths to remain a flashpoint despite Xi-Trump call The long-awaited call between Xi and Trump seems to have averted any immediate risk of the Geneva truce falling apart, though it doesn't make a lasting settlement between the two more likely. One... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters unlikely to benefit from US court ruling Even if the higher courts uphold the order to remove Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, we doubt this would result in a lasting tariff reduction for China. Both Trump's love for tariffs and the... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Exports still holding up, but online retailers under fire Chinese exports have held up surprisingly well in the face of US tariffs, with exports to other markets helping to offset the fall in shipments to the US. But there are signs that other countries are... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: A tariff detente won’t avert an export slowdown The US-China trade talks taking place in Geneva this weekend could pave the way for a partial rollback in tariffs. But they are still likely to remain much higher than at the start of the year. And a... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Taking a stand against the US President Trump wants to cut a deal with China so that he can claim victory and roll back some tariffs. But China’s leaders aren’t playing ball. They are considering tariff exemptions for certain... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China decoupling is going into overdrive The gradual unravelling of economic ties between the US and China over the past decade is now giving way to a much more abrupt and extreme rupture. Sky-high tariffs threaten a collapse in bilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China and US still in an escalatory loop The fact that the Chinese authorities have once again matched US tariff hikes suggests that they are in no rush to negotiate with the Trump administration. They’ve said that they won’t hike tariffs... 11th April 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US tariffs on China set to escalate further China is very likely to be among the countries hit with additional US tariffs next week, potentially lifting average duties as high as 60%. Unless the renminbi weakens significantly in response, our... 28th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China’s 10-year yields to fall below Japan’s We expect Chinese 10-year government bond yields to fall below 10-year Japanese government bond yields this year, for the first time since Chinese bond prices became market determined. While this... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Investors giving up on further monetary easing Two-year government bond yields in China are now 25bp higher than they were when the PBOC adopted an apparently more dovish “moderately loose” stance late last year. There have been no policy rate... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Q1 fiscal tightening to reverse before long While the annual budget presented at the NPC implies an acceleration in fiscal expenditure this year, early signs are that spending has slowed in Q1, weighing on economic activity. Fiscal spending... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: What to watch at the NPC The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Wednesday with the delivery of the Work Report and annual budget. While the GDP growth target usually receives the most attention, we don't think... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
