China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right direction The new consumer loan subsidy programme announced by the Ministry of Finance this week is unlikely to significantly drive up household spending. But may be a sign that China's leadership is finally... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Semiconductor” tariffs threaten more than just chips Trump's plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals isn't a big threat at face value – chips and pharma only make up a small fraction of China's exports to the US. But there is a risk... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: The new US tariff landscape, fiscal constraints The new reciprocal tariff rates mean that Chinese exports will become more competitive in the US. But planned duties on transhipped goods are a threat, albeit a less serious one than some think... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Mega-dam won’t power the economy, trade talks resume While the start of work on China's colossal new hydropower project in Tibet sent infrastructure stocks surging this week, construction won't do much to boost the economy. Meanwhile, US-China trade... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Warmer US-China relations, foreigners staying away US-China relations are warming, with growing talk of a Xi-Trump summit and gestures of goodwill on both sides. Further de-escalation, including cooperation on fentanyl, could pave the way to a Phase... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Tackling overcapacity will require demand-side stimulus China’s leadership appears to be embarking on a campaign of supply-side measures aimed at tackling overcapacity and deflation. But local officials may balk at the economic cost of implementing them... 11th July 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China-US trade rerouting in Trump’s crosshairs Given its trade truce with the US, China isn’t at much risk of being hit with higher duties when the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs ends next week. But Trump’s trade deals with the UK and... 4th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China “deal” moves forward but risks remain The trade “deal” reached in Geneva and London has now been finalised and signed. The exact terms have yet to be made public but appear to be limited in scope and still leave economic ties in far worse... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Still wary of welfare spending, an empty deal It's now nearly a year since China's leadership promised to "vigorously boost consumption" and the government this week released another policy document pledging more support for households. These... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Rare earths to remain a flashpoint despite Xi-Trump call The long-awaited call between Xi and Trump seems to have averted any immediate risk of the Geneva truce falling apart, though it doesn't make a lasting settlement between the two more likely. One... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters unlikely to benefit from US court ruling Even if the higher courts uphold the order to remove Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, we doubt this would result in a lasting tariff reduction for China. Both Trump's love for tariffs and the... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Exports still holding up, but online retailers under fire Chinese exports have held up surprisingly well in the face of US tariffs, with exports to other markets helping to offset the fall in shipments to the US. But there are signs that other countries are... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: A tariff detente won’t avert an export slowdown The US-China trade talks taking place in Geneva this weekend could pave the way for a partial rollback in tariffs. But they are still likely to remain much higher than at the start of the year. And a... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
