China Economics Weekly Chipmaking progress doesn’t change bigger picture While news this week that a Chinese firm has started to mass-produce advanced lithography machines is a momentous development for chipmaking in China, China's hardware lag is still significant. As a... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI independence concerns, SBP on hold Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo’s surprise resignation at the start of the week has raised further concerns over central bank independence, but markets have remained calm given the appointment... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy expanded by 4.3% y/y in Q2. While strong on paper (the economy grew by 3.5% last year), that simply reflects flattering base effects and the impact of last quarter’s bumper growth... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon risks to inflation remain significant After the driest June in over a decade, India has received healthier monsoon rainfall in July, while the government has ample stocks of key staples such as rice. But the inflation risk remains... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Ueda opens door to September BoJ rate hike In response to Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the next rate hike from October to September. That would imply a marked acceleration in the Bank’s tightening... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax suspension adds to fiscal concerns While the government’s decision to press ahead with lowering the sales tax on food next year will reduce headline inflation sharply, we don’t think it will have major consequences for the outlook for... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jul. 26) While the BoJ left interest rates unchanged as widely anticipated, the accompanying Outlook report was hawkish and we’re sticking to our non-consensus view that the Bank will lift interest rates to 2%... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jul. 2026) The unofficial manufacturing PMI declined in July but by less than its official counterpart, suggesting that factory activity is holding up better in the eastern provinces that depend more heavily on... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Jun. 26) & Tokyo CPI (July 26) The June activity data suggest that GDP rose at a robust pace last quarter, while there are early signs that higher energy costs are feeding through to consumer prices. 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Sixth(!) time the charm for the yen? Intervention in support of the yen may not work any better now than it has previously, but the persistence of the Japanese authorities suggests to us that the yen will remain around the 160 level this... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Profit pick-up doesn’t signal overcapacity being resolved The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 26) The Politburo has just concluded its July meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The tone was less upbeat than the April meeting, presumably reflecting the deterioration in a number of... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
