Japan Economics Focus Profits will hold up better than the Bank of Japan expects While the Bank of Japan is worried that trade tensions will weigh on profits, business investment and wage growth, profits have in fact held up well so far and we expect that to remain the case going... 2nd September 2025 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: worries about financial risks overblown Worries that interest rate cuts in Korea are stoking financial risks look overdone. Property prices across most of the country are either flat or falling, while household debt is declining as a share... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (August) The August PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect manufacturing in the region to struggle in the near term. And with inflation set to remain contained, we think... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Aug. 2025) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy accelerated last month, thanks to faster growth across manufacturing and services. But given weak domestic demand and fading fiscal support, we don’t see much... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strong H1, additional US tariff comes in, Modi-Xi meeting The strength of the Q2 GDP data leaves the economy on course to grow by 7% this year, but it is facing a more challenging 2026 as punitive US tariffs hit. Geopolitics will dominate the headlines next... 29th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trump tariffs targeting Russian oil yet to shock the oil market The oil market shrugged off the introduction of US "secondary" tariffs on India this week and we expect this to continue to have little impact as long as India continues to purchase Russian oil and... 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q2 2025) The surprise acceleration in India’s GDP growth in Q2 means that the economy is still on course to expand by a world-beating 7% this year, despite the upcoming hit from punitive US tariffs. 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China spurns Nvidia as it plans domestic AI boom Rather than welcoming improved access to Nvidia chips, Chinese officials are discouraging purchases and focusing on boosting domestic chip output. This dovetails with a wider AI+ plan, fleshed out... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs of economic turnaround in Korea The monthly activity data released over the past week suggest that Korea’s economy made a decent start to the third quarter. Stronger consumption and rising government spending should support growth... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How rising JGB yields could be a threat to Treasuries The rise in the yields of Japanese government bonds doesn’t seem to have diminished Japanese investors’ appetite for US Treasuries, and our base case is that will continue. But the risks are growing. 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tight labour market will prompt further BoJ tightening There are signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. However, with the labour market still extremely tight and inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (July 25) The July activity data were a mixed bag but on balance suggest that the economy will lose momentum this quarter. 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The implications of Mexican tariffs on China Mexico’s plans, reported by Bloomberg, to put tariffs on imports from China (and possibly other parts of Asia) target many of the government’s goals – appeasing the US, mending the public finances and... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth picks up, but economy remains weak Our China Activity Proxy shows that China’s economy accelerated last month, with growth picking up across all sectors. Still, the economy remains far weaker than official estimates suggest. We expect... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
