China Rapid Response China Loan Prime Rate (May 2025) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) probably won’t be the last this year. But rate cuts are likely to remain modest as the PBOC appears to think they could... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for Asian currencies The de-escalation of the US-China trade war and the Trump administration’s wider reduction of tariff rates means that a sharp depreciation of the renminbi has become less probable. While we continue... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Q1 GDP (May 2025) Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q1 but we think growth over the rest of the year will be rather weak as the boost from stronger public consumption is likely to be offset by weakness in... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2025) After an improvement in March, China’s economy looks to have slowed again last month, with firms and households turning more cautious due to the trade war. While the recent US-China tariff de... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Not such a hurry after all While Donald Trump still sounds bullish on the chances of a trade deal with India, India’s government has signalled this week that the US will have to give some ground too. Meanwhile, although tariffs... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US and China try to shift the fracturing map The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s uneasy trade countdown With just over 50 days left until the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs expire, most countries in Asia appear to be making only slow progress on agreeing trade deals with the US. While many... 16th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg up After an extraordinary rally in gold prices, the recent pullback naturally raises the question of where gold prices may be headed next. In our view, the rest of this year will prove more challenging... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US big tech is back … but not at China’s expense The rolling back of tariffs has coincided with a recovery in big tech in the US and China. Their dual rally is something new since Donald Trump returned to the White House. We think there’s a good... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Bank loan growth resumed its slowdown last month, but broad credit growth continued to accelerate on the back of a surge in government bond issuance. While monetary easing should help drive up private... 14th May 2025 · 2 mins read
