Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Service sector under pressure, demographics worsening If the official GDP data are to be believed, quarter-on-quarter growth picked up in Q4, driven by stronger services activity. But this is at odds with other indicators, which point to weaker momentum... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Bulgaria’s slow euro-zone convergence to continue Bulgaria has become the latest but also the poorest member of the single currency area following its euro adoption at the start of the year. GDP per capita should continue to converge with Western... 14th January 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pensions & public finances: not just a French problem Far from being only a French problem, pensions will be a growing fiscal headache in all the major euro-zone countries in the coming decade as populations age. In France and Italy, this will add to the... 14th January 2026 · 24 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Update Declining population weighing on unemployment The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: weak population growth holding back recovery The tighter labour market in Australia will continue to encourage large numbers of New Zealanders to move to Australia, holding back the recovery in the housing market and consumer spending. While... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Takaichi unlikely to curb immigration much Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Senior housing returns to exceed 10% p.a. over 2026-30 Solid demand and a lack of new supply mean we expect senior housing vacancy rates to reach record lows in 2027 and stay at low levels in the following years, helping rent gains averages 4.5% p.a. over... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update New immigration targets may give the BoC further pause The government’s new immigration targets raise the risk that most forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, are overestimating the outlook for population growth. While that presents a downside risk... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing China has just confirmed an annual childcare allowance for parents with children below 3 years old. The sums involved are too small to have a near-term impact on the birth rate or consumption. But the... 8th July 2025 (Updated 28th July 2025) · 5 mins read
