US Housing Market Update Demographics to boost homeownership in 2024 There are growing signs that stretched affordability is weighing on homeownership, particularly for the under 35s. We expect this to persist in the coming quarters. But there is a large pool of young... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker labour market will keep a lid on wage growth While the second consecutive fall in employment in January may partly reflect seasonal distortions, there can be little doubt that the labour market is rapidly losing momentum. The unemployment rate... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2023) The weakness in January’s labour market data shows that rapid rate hikes are starting to cool activity, but with inflation still far too high that won’t prevent the RBA from tightening policy for a... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail to split as US nears recession Almost three years on from the pandemic, only middle-income households are yet to recover financially. In the face of a looming downturn, we expect this will drive growth for discounters as middle... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech-China tensions, Poland’s birth rate slumps The increase in tensions between the newly elected Czech president and Chinese authorities this week highlights the risk of a fracturing of economic ties between the two countries. For Czechia, China... 3rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Funding tussle may scupper higher spending on babies PM Kishida’s plan to lift spending on childcare would take the total outlay to the highest in the OECD. However, this likely won’t have much of an impact on the stubborn decline in fertility. After... 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday travel, population decline The number of Chinese travelling across the country to spend next week’s Lunar New Year holiday with their families looks set to almost double from last year. Meanwhile, those staying put in the... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Weekly High migration, but low labour force The most striking thing about the record rise in net migration in the year to June 2022 is that it has not prevented the decline in the labour force. Without the rise in net migration, the labour... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Multi-employer pay deals add upside risks to inflation The proposed multi-employer wage agreements risk further fuelling inflation by disruptive industrial action. And while employers could circumvent them by striking traditional enterprise agreements... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record immigration won’t make the Bank’s job easier The accepted wisdom is that strong immigration reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, as it will eventually help to ease labour shortages. But the immediate impact has... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s mobilisation, external conditions tighten President Putin's "partial mobilisation" of Russian military reservists this week as part of its ongoing war with Ukraine could have important macro implications for Russia's economy through... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the government hit a new 2.5% growth target? In his mini-Budget slated for next Friday, the new Chancellor reportedly intends to set an official target of raising real GDP growth to 2.5% a year. But with productivity growth and labour force... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
