China Economics Weekly MoF signals that fiscal policy will stay supportive The fiscal deficit across China’s two main budgets expanded almost 40% y/y over the past three months. This isn’t sustainable, and the pace of fiscal loosening will almost certainly slow over the... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia concerns shift to budget, CBSL to resume easing Indonesia’s latest budget for next year points to a slight widening of the deficit, compared with its earlier estimate. This, along with a statement today from the new finance minister, who called the... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade talks resume, PM Modi at 75 Talks between US and Indian trade officials resumed this week in Delhi, hinting at a slight thawing in relations that have become acrimonious over the past couple of months. But while an encouraging... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to overshoot BoJ’s forecasts Given that Governor Ueda is still sounding very non-committal about the timing of the next rate hike, the two hawkish dissents at this week’s BoJ meeting could well prove to be a red herring. But with... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan inching towards tighter policy While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. Note... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ will cut further to revive the ailing economy With New Zealand’s real GDP having plunged last quarter, the output gap is now at its most negative level since the Global Financial Crisis. The excess capacity in the economy will exert downward... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The Bank of Japan will probably look past the ongoing fall in headline inflation, given that underlying inflation is holding up reasonably well. Accordingly, we still think there’s a case for the Bank... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Indonesia making a policy mistake? Policymakers in Indonesia can make a case that more monetary and fiscal support is warranted given the economic drag from recent protests and flooding as well as US tariffs, and the backdrop of low... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2025) After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Summer investment slump likely to be short-lived If the sharp slowdown in fixed investment over the summer were to be sustained, China’s economy would suffer a hard landing. However, it appears mostly to reflect temporary weather-related factors and... 18th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and low inflation, we expect policy settings to be left unchanged... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Outlook Buyer-seller mismatch will keep investment slow Asia-Pacific property will endure a slow , uneven recovery. E levated risk-free rates and soft regional growth will restrain capital appreciation, leaving income as the primary engine of returns. We... 18th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025) Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2025) The sharp decline in output last quarter puts a bumper 50bp cut in play for the RBNZ at its October meeting. Risks to our forecast for a terminal rate of 2.5% are also tilted to the downside. 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency The immediate consequence for China’s economy of banning the import of Nvidia chips will be limited. But the move signals a strong commitment by China’s leadership to developing cutting-edge chip... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
