Asia Economics Focus Korea: trade deal, fiscal stimulus priorities for next president Given the widespread public anger toward the impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol of the People’s Power Party (PPP), following his botched attempt at declaring martial law, Lee Jae-myung of the... 21st May 2025 · 12 mins read
India Economics Update Should core inflation be a worry for the RBI? Core inflation in India rose to an 18-month high in April, but there are reasons to think that this overstates the extent to which the economy is running into capacity constraints. And with headline... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central America most exposed to a US remittance tax The proposed 5% US tax on remittance outflows would have a particularly large negative impact on Central American economies such as Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. Remittance flows could... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update No sign of a tariff hit to China’s green exports in April Despite the jump in US tariffs this year, China’s exports of the “New Three” reached a record high in April. This was mainly driven by increased exports to non-US markets, such as the EU. Looking... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2025) With the Bank growing increasingly concerned about downside risks to the economy, there is a good chance that it will cut rates further than we are currently anticipating this cycle. 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Loan Prime Rate (May 2025) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) probably won’t be the last this year. But rate cuts are likely to remain modest as the PBOC appears to think they could... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for Asian currencies The de-escalation of the US-China trade war and the Trump administration’s wider reduction of tariff rates means that a sharp depreciation of the renminbi has become less probable. While we continue... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Q1 GDP (May 2025) Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q1 but we think growth over the rest of the year will be rather weak as the boost from stronger public consumption is likely to be offset by weakness in... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2025) After an improvement in March, China’s economy looks to have slowed again last month, with firms and households turning more cautious due to the trade war. While the recent US-China tariff de... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Not such a hurry after all While Donald Trump still sounds bullish on the chances of a trade deal with India, India’s government has signalled this week that the US will have to give some ground too. Meanwhile, although tariffs... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
