RBI Watch

RBI is done tightening; cuts to come onto agenda soon

We think the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8th June. And while the door will be kept ajar for a resumption in the hiking cycle over the coming months, we...

China Economics Weekly

Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet

The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers...

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Korea’s economic woes rumble on

The latest activity data for Korea were downbeat and support our view that the economy is set to weaken in the second quarter. Meanwhile, house prices fell further in May and are now down about 10%...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA

Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential...

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (May)

India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose in May to a 31-month high and points to very healthy growth in the sector. But the survey also shows that price pressures are well past the peak, supporting our...

Japan Economics Weekly

Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling

The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent...

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Sri Lanka: surprise rate cut, further easing to be gradual

Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) cut interest rates in a surprise move today but we think further monetary loosening will be gradual as concerns about the external position are likely to persist in the...

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May.)

Manufacturing PMIs declined in most countries in Emerging Asia. Weak demand and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on manufacturing output in Asia over the coming quarters.

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May)

With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze...

India Data Response

GDP (Q1)

GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy rebounded at the start of the year. But with higher interest rates still feeding through and fiscal policy turning slightly less supportive...

India Economics Focus

India and the physical risks from climate change

India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it...

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: Further tightening unlikely

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bps, to 2.0%, today but given the relatively benign outlook for inflation we think this marks the end of the tightening cycle.

Emerging Asia Rapid Response

Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (May)

RBA Watch

RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July

With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don...

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 23)

While the pick-up in inflation in April mostly reflects base effects from the excise duty cut a year ago, trimmed mean CPI picked up as well. With inflation set to overshoot the RBA’s forecasts this...