Asia Economics Update

How rising defence spending will impact Asia

Defence spending across Asia is set to rise over the coming years, driven in part by increased pressure from the US for its allies to shoulder more of their own security costs. While the overall boost...

27th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear...

27th August 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (July 25)

27th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Asia Chart Pack (August 2025)

Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most countries in Asia will face tariffs of 15–25% on their exports to the US, and although these are...

26th August 2025 · 0 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (Aug. 2025)

Although the RBA will retain its cautious approach for the time being, we believe the Bank will ultimately cut rates further than most are predicting .

26th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Ueda overstating structural change in labour market

The Bank of Japan is overplaying the importance of structural changes in Japan’s labour market in explaining the post-pandemic pick-up in cost pressures. Even so, we still expect inflation to be...

26th August 2025 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: Millions are about to see their take-home pay fall

From 1st September onwards, companies in China and their employees will no longer be able to avoid making social security contributions. This will pave the way for higher pay-outs over the medium-term...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: A close call in Korea, BI’s surprise cut

While most analysts expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, we are forecasting a cut. Although GDP growth rebounded last quarter, the poor prospects for construction...

22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Don't let a good crisis go to waste

Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27th August deadline. But policymakers are using the threat that tariffs pose to the economy to...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform

When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: External headwinds still not doing much damage

There are mounting signs that higher US tariffs are starting to weigh on exports. However, with business investment holding up and inflation still strong, the financial markets are coming around to...

22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (July 2025)

Although inflation is likely to cool a bit further in the months ahead, it shouldn’t prevent the Bank of Japan from resuming its tightening cycle in October.

22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2025)

India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting...

21st August 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Don’t blame the public sector for Australia's productivity malaise

Even though direct government spending now accounts for the largest share of GDP on record, we aren’t convinced that this explains the prolonged weakness in productivity growth.

21st August 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 25)

While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest.

21st August 2025 · 2 mins read