India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in September and with the outlook generally benign and the economy set to cool, we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle in the... 13th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2025) Exports held up last month, with headline y/y growth rising to a six-month high and shipments also picking up on a seasonally adjusted basis. While this resilience underscores the ability of Chinese... 13th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Real wages not falling as much as official data suggest Real wages haven’t fallen as sharply as the official data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare would suggest. Nonetheless, it is striking that workers are not benefitting much from... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A high-stakes game of chicken President Trump has threatened to hit back hard if China doesn’t back away from the trade restrictions it announced last week. This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail – a... 13th October 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ plays it safe; China’s oil stockpiling frenzy continues The ongoing and sizeable build-up of oil stockpiles in China is helping to counteract underlying sluggish oil demand growth, and helps to explain why oil prices have not fallen as far as might have... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Coalition Talks The departure of long-standing partner Komeito from Japan’s ruling coalition means that the election of Sanae Takaichi as PM is no longer guaranteed but we still expect her to declare victory... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam export boom continues, Thai deflation risks GDP growth in Vietnam held firm at 8.2% y/y in Q3, underpinned by resilient exports despite the 20% US tariffs introduced in August. The strength of the export sector likely reflects increased re... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deals back in focus The flurry of activity around bilateral trade deals this week highlights the shift to a more liberal approach among Indian policymakers. Politically-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will probably... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China tightens its grip on rare earths (again) China has substantially expanded its rare earth export controls – these now apply not only to a wider range of elements and magnets but, on paper least, any goods that contain them in meaningful... 9th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: infrastructure boost starting to pay off The recent corruption scandal involving flood-control projects has cast a shadow over the Philippines’ infrastructure drive. Yet despite this, the country has seen substantial improvements in roads... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
