China Economics Update China trip notes – AI & green tech underpin optimism We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ keen to hike but risks tilted towards further delay We are sending this publication one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed due to a public holiday on 1st May. The Bank of Japan is clearly worried about the inflationary... 30th April 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2026) The RatingDog Services PMI came in stronger than expected, diverging from its official counterpart. The average of the two was unchanged from March, however. And given the weakness in the construction... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 26) The March activity data only show a small economic hit from the energy shock so far but we still think that the economy will slow noticeably over the next couple of quarters. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom? 12th May 2026, 9:00AM BST China is widely seen as a key “winner” of the Iran conflict–driven energy shock, thanks in part to its dominance in green tech manufacturing. But how big is the upside?
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will raise rates to 4.60% in Q3 The RBA will raise rates by another 25bp, to 4.35%, at its meeting next week. While the Bank will likely acknowledge that downside risks to activity have risen, it will put more emphasis on the upside... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1/Mar. 26) Inflation didn’t rise as much last quarter as most had anticipated but the full impact of the energy cost shock has yet to be felt. 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent surge in semiconductors? This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
India Economics Update Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for India Extreme heat is now compounding the challenges of rising fertiliser prices and deficient monsoon rains to undermine yields in Indian agriculture. Industry and services could be hit too; a surge in... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Industry-driven recovery continues Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s growth accelerated last month, with higher oil prices doing little to dampen industrial activity. Indeed, over Q1 as a whole, China’s economy expanded at... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Economic security tops Politburo agenda The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
