China Economics Focus China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity China is mounting a push for global technological leadership by deploying industrial policy on a huge scale. Judging by how competitive many Chinese firms now are at the cutting edge, the effort is... 2nd June 2025 · 25 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy struggling but exports holding up The impact of the trade war on Korean exporters has so far been limited. Although exports to the US fell in May, the decline was modest and offset by strong demand from other markets. However, other... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia in store for a tepid housing rebound Australian house prices edged up a notch in May, and leading indicators suggest they will gather further momentum over the coming months. However, with debt-servicing costs set to remain onerous... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2025) The rise in the Caixin services PMI for May is reassuring and suggests that the US-China trade truce has boosted consumer and business sentiment. But it wasn’t enough to prevent the composite PMI from... 2nd June 2025 (Updated 5th June 2025) · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May. 25) China’s economy slowed in April. And although US tariffs have had a bigger impact on consumer confidence than export growth, broader external headwinds will drive down export growth later this year... 30th May 2025 · 0 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q1 2025) GDP figures for Q1 2025 show that India’s economy grew at a robust pace at the start of the year and we think that growth may remain strong over the coming quarters as lower interest rates filter... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea goes to the polls with economy struggling Korea’s election takes place against a backdrop of an economy that may already be in recession, given the weakness of data published this week. We expect fiscal stimulus from the new president and a... 30th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese exporters unlikely to benefit from US court ruling Even if the higher courts uphold the order to remove Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, we doubt this would result in a lasting tariff reduction for China. Both Trump's love for tariffs and the... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s pessimism is facing reality check Firms’ output forecasts suggest that Japanese exporters are benefitting from US demand shifting away from China. And with inflation running miles ahead of the Bank of Japan’s overly pessimistic... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities could thrive despite tariffs We’re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for China’s stock market over the rest of the year, despite the clear headwinds it faces. 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Weak economy will force RBNZ's hand When it cut rates by 25bp this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a somewhat cautious approach to policy setting going forward. However, the recent flow of data suggest that New Zealand... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Despite the ongoing slump in consumer spending, we’re not convinced the RBA will cut rates as aggressively as markets are anticipating. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 25) If anything, the April activity data suggest that Japan’s economy is benefitting from trade tensions, which bodes well for our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (May 25) The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation in inflation, which suggests that the Bank of Japan may hike rate even earlier than our current forecast of October. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
