Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that inflation will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could result in a sharper slowdown in GDP growth than we’re anticipating. But it would also reinforce the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation. Indeed, we’re sticking to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts.
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