Capital Daily Payrolls history repeat & market fallout Financial markets have stabilised after Friday’s US payrolls shock and, unlike this time last year, there are few signs that large swings in government bond and currency markets are leading to a... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls déjà vu threatens the dollar’s rebound Today’s weak US non-farm payrolls data has undone much of the dollar’s rally this week. While the DXY index is still on up the week, and ~2.5% stronger since the start of July, the increased risk of a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Three key points on the FOMC’s hawkish surprise Judging by yesterday’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference remarks, the FOMC doesn’t look to be in a hurry to change its policy stance. That points to somewhat higher Treasury... 31st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will Turkey & Argentina’s exchange rate policies backfire? The use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for prices – as is currently the case in Turkey and Argentina – has a broadly successful track record in bringing down inflation in the emerging world... 28th July 2025 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: FOMC & payrolls likely to boost the dollar The US dollar is set to end the week lower against most other G10 currencies, with progress on US trade deals with Japan and Europe, a relatively hawkish ECB meeting, and continued headlines around... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to weaken vs euro as UK-EZ rates converge The combination of some relatively hawkish signals from the ECB yesterday and some more soggy data out of the UK has sent the euro to its strongest level against sterling since late 2023. We think... 25th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily ECB in “a good place”, how about euro-zone markets? The ECB has left rates unchanged and, with inflation at target, we now suspect its monetary easing cycle is over. So bond yields are unlikely in our view to fall much, particularly at the short end... 24th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian peso set to be a regional underperformer We think Colombia’s fragile fiscal position – which could get even worse ahead of next year’s election – and a likely deterioration in the current account deficit will cause the peso to fall by more... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi government debt, Egyptian pound Reports this week highlighted the recent sharp rise in Saudi government debt and, while officials are taking steps to tighten fiscal policy, we doubt that they will do enough to prevent it climbing... 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan answered We held an online Drop-In session yesterday to discuss the latest developments in Japan’s economy and financial markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy has largely shrugged off global trade tensions and the trade deal reached between... 23rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily First thoughts on the market implications of Japan’s “deal” We think Japan’s equities will do well over the rest of this year, even accounting for their big rally today, and that the yen will recover in time. But, the trade announcement looks like worse news... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
