Capital Daily Three key charts for financial markets in 2026 As the year draws to a close, the key themes and questions that emerge for 2026 are in many ways familiar. Will the AI boom continue? Can the government bond market keep muddling through? And can the... 22nd December 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Is the problem with the yen a real one? Today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise it key policy rate by another 25bp has done nothing to shore up the yen, which has fallen by another ~1% against the US dollar. Admittedly, the... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook AI bubble could inflate more before it bursts We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some... 17th December 2025 · 30 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 16th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s FX shift will still leave the peso overvalued The announcement by Argentina’s central bank that it will widen the peso’s trading bands is a step in the right direction, but it won’t be enough to bring the peso closer to its fair value. With the... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key themes for financial markets in 2026 We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound... 16th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 15th December 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily No holiday cheer for the bond market The last full working week of 2025 is a busy one. Half of the G10 central banks announce policy, alongside several key economic data points including delayed US payrolls data. Government bond yields... 15th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan shilling, South Africa’s port deal Kenya’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp earlier this week, to 9.00%, but the extent of further monetary loosening is likely to rest on what happens next with the shilling, which is... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Limited macro impact from further rupee weakness The Indian rupee continues to hit fresh lows against the US dollar and we think it will weaken to 93/$ by the end of next year. This presents limited macro risk: inflation and FX debts are very low... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fed still a threat to Treasuries, tailwind for greenback Our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will rally in 2026, as the Fed delivers just one more cut. But Wednesday’s meeting highlighted some of the risks to that view 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC on deck; JGBs under siege As the final round of G10 central bank policy meetings for the year kicks off, the emerging theme is divergence. That applies to both the immediate policy decisions and, more importantly, to the... 8th December 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee at 90/$; what next? The Indian rupee breached 90/$ for the first time ever this week and we think further, albeit gradual, depreciation lies in store over the coming quarters. We now expect the rupee to end next year at... 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI resumes easing cycle; one more rate cut to come The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today resumed its easing cycle and struck a fairly dovish tone. With inflation set to stay well-below target and growth set to ease over the coming quarters, we remain... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
