Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasury yields & dollar still likely to rebound Another set of robust US activity data suggest that the US economy remains in decent shape despite the recent slowdown in employment growth. This suggests to us that the FOMC will stick to a more... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for dollar ahead of the FOMC We no longer expect much of a rebound in the US dollar this year as the FOMC is about to resume rate cuts. But given the extent of Fed easing already discounted, our base case remains that the dollar... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC likely to bring some relief for struggling greenback The dollar has weakened a little further this week after US inflation and jobs data again came out on the soft side. This probably cements a 25bp rate cut next week’s FOMC meeting. But we continue to... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Key questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Indonesia This Update answers the key questions on recent developments in Indonesia and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the country’s financial markets. We discussed many of these... 10th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Can Nigeria put its public finances on a stable footing? Nigeria policy shift has led to success in monetary policy reform and a stronger balance of payments position. But reforms have so far fallen short is reining in the large budget deficit. While non... 9th September 2025 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still likely to rebound from latest payrolls setback Another soft non-farm payrolls report has put the dollar on the backfoot again, but given the extent of Fed easing already discounted we continue to think the greenback will remain rangebound over the... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: is growing ‘euroisation’ a concern? The increase in euro-denominated bank lending and deposits across parts of CEE in recent years – due in part to high domestic inflation and interest rates – looks like a concern on the surface, but... 4th September 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar not quite cooked yet A quiet month-end week has seen the dollar stabilise – in spite of the Trump administration’s latest escalation of its attacks on the Fed. The lack of follow-through after those attacks and Fed Chair... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
