Japan Economics Weekly Investment splurge may lift bond yields further The government’s new investment target may well turn out to be smoke and mirrors. But large-scale attempts to influence private investment decisions could result in resource misallocation and lower... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Summer festival fever to keep hiring momentum intact The June Employment Report, due a day earlier than usual (Thursday July 2nd), is likely to show another solid 110,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, with hiring supported by major summer events, including... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to power growth and keep core inflation firm The economy is in the middle of an AI-related capex boom and, with some of the prior policy-related headwinds now fading, we expect average annual GDP growth to pick-up to an above-consensus 2.5% next... 25th June 2026 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2026) The 3.4% rate of core PCE inflation in May likely marks the peak of this cycle, as tariff effects fade and the recent plunge in oil prices weighs on several categories, including airline fares. Even... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending & Labour Market (May 26) The May household spending and labour market data don’t provide a strong signal about the RBA’s next move. 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (May 2026) The continued acceleration in underlying inflation in May means that the RBA can’t declare victory in the war on inflation just yet. Accordingly, we continue to believe it will deliver one final 25bp... 24th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update AI buildout to continue boosting world trade Exports of AI goods now make up a third of growth in overall global exports and they are likely to remain a key driver of trade into 2027. Meanwhile, the move from Section 122 to Section 301 tariffs... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2026) June’s flash PMI figures show that the combination of weak activity and lower oil prices are constraining price rises. This lends a bit more support to our view that the Bank of England does not need... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in headline inflation in May was mostly due to higher fuel and food prices, both of which should prove temporary. With core price pressures still muted otherwise, the... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026) A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly US-Iran peace deal brings growth risks back to the fore The sharp drop in global oil benchmarks on the back of the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shifts the balance of risks back towards weaker growth and away from higher inflation... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A new PM won’t change the fiscal realities Andy Burnham's decisive Makerfield by-election victory has taken him one step closer to 10 Downing Street, but a change in Prime Minister won't change the fiscal realities. While there may be talk of... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026) Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will... 19th June 2026 · 3 mins read
