US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed won’t cave to Trump pressure A contraction in GDP and near-flatlining in core PCE prices would usually be more than enough to persuade policymakers at the Fed to cut interest rates. Since those data precede the implementation of... 30th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1) The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 2025) April’s bigger-than-expected 0.6% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices (consensus forecast 0.0% m/m, Capital Economics -0.1% m/m) isn’t too surprising as most of it probably reflects home purchases... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japanese bank outperformance has a bit further to go Japanese banks are the one sector benefitting from the BoJ’s tightening cycle as higher interest rates lift their income by more than their expenses. And although they’ve struggled more recently amid... 30th April 2025 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data healthy amid DOGE purge The JOLTS data again showed the labour market stabilising at a healthy level in March. While there were for the first time some signs of the DOGE purge of the federal workforce in the survey, the... 29th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Surely the next 100 days won’t be as turbulent as the last? The US stock market and the dollar have fared worse over the last hundred days than they fared during the first hundred days of all other presidential terms since 1980. What’s more, there has been an... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump: What to expect in the second 100 days President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of... 29th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Will Asia benefit from China's plunging US exports? Parts of South East Asia, notably Vietnam, as well as India are well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports. But uncertainty over the future tariff... 29th April 2025 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 Index shows US commercial property values now rising, but valuation gaps persist The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) recorded a third consecutive quarter of positive total returns in Q1 2025, driven primarily by income. Although capital value growth turned positive, questions remain... 28th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s rent inflation about to take off? Our base case is that faster growth in household incomes will result in the recent pick-up in rent inflation broadening from major cities to the rest of the country. However, there’s a risk that... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
