Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2025) October’s housing data were broadly positive, with sales and prices both up on the month. We expect falling starts and a lower path for the Bank’s policy rate than markets are pricing in to drive a... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Subdued global inflation masks regional variation We expect global inflation to hover around 2.5% in the year ahead but there will be significant differences between economies. Goods inflation has a bit further to rise in the US which, coupled with... 18th November 2025 · 18 mins read
US Economics Focus AI boosting US economic growth The AI boom that has been driving the stock market for several years is now clearly evident in economic activity too. In particular, we suspect that AI explains most of the pick-up in ICT sector... 18th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Nov. 2025) The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Normal service resumes in Washington We are sending this Weekly again to include the dates and previews of the post-shutdown data releases that have been announced so far With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank committed to current policy rate for now The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s October meeting contained some mixed messages, but ultimately confirmed that the Bank remains committed to the current policy rate of 2.25% for the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2025) The solid rebound in manufacturing sales in September is not as positive for GDP growth as first meets the eye, since inventories of finished products and goods in process both ticked down that month... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risks tilted towards a bigger hit to GDP from UK Budget The risk that the Budget could prove detrimental for GDP has only been heightened by the news that the Chancellor has reportedly decided not to raise income tax in favour of a shopping list of smaller... 14th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The risks from escalating tensions with China There is a risk that the recent tensions with China escalate into a full-blown trade spat akin to the conflict around the Senkaku islands in the early 2010s. There are several avenues through which... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the outperformance of European equities Despite outperforming so far this week, we suspect equities in Europe will ultimately fall behind their peers in the US again through the end of 2026. 13th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic data will return slowly post-shutdown The reopening of the federal government does not mean the flow of economic data will be restored straight away. Survey-based data not collected in October during the funding lapse will take weeks to... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep./Q3 2025) Much of the 0.1% m/m fall in September (consensus and CE 0.0%) and muted 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q3 was due to the hit to manufacturing activity caused by the Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack, which... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
