US Economics Weekly Fed can afford to be patient Both this week’s economic data and Fed commentary skewed dovish on balance, pushing back against the idea that the Fed will move again in October. 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher yields add to the headwinds for consumers Higher yields are only a modest headwind for consumers but, at a time when real income growth is already slowing, they are another reason to expect weaker consumer spending growth in the coming... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep. 2026) The softer payroll gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it has helped trim investors’... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to our interest rate forecasts are growing The data released this week vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation and we expect the Bank to keep hiking rates once every quarter. With few signs that higher interest... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s tightening cycle is likely at an end The RBA left the door open to further tightening when it hiked rates by 25bp this week. However, policy is already well into restrictive territory and much of this year’s tightening has yet to work... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) With 30-year fixed mortgage rates now at a near three-year high of 7.3%, the near-term outlook for home sales and prices remains weak. However, we expect things to improve from next year as energy... 1st October 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Gauging the risk of persistent inflation Years have past since the 2022 energy shock, and yet much of the thinking behind commentary on the implications of surging energy prices for inflation and monetary policy remains muddled. Relatedly... 1st October 2026 · 16 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 2026) The surprise 0.2% m/m fall in house prices in September (CE & consensus forecast 0.0% m/m) increases the risk that a further rebound in mortgage rates and/or uncertainty over possible tax hikes in the... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update No reprieve for the housing market yet Australia’s housing downturn still has further to run, even if there are tentative signs that demand is beginning to stabilise. Weakening housing market conditions should help ease shelter inflation... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 26) The Q3 Tankan survey showed that overall business conditions were the most favourable in decades, which should encourage the Bank of Japan to keep tightening policy at a faster pace 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside growth risks to limit rate hikes Trade uncertainty and lower immigration will limit GDP growth to 1.5% next year, keeping core inflation from drifting too far back above target. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada will only hike twice... 30th September 2026 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2026 Final) The upward revision to real GDP growth in Q2, from 0.4% q/q to 0.5% q/q, suggests that the economy has been a bit more resilient to higher energy prices in the first half of the year than previously... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
