Japan Economics Update Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: January rate hike now looking likely A flurry of communication by the Bank of Japan this week suggests that a rate hike at next week's meeting is very likely. And whereas the financial markets foresee just one additional 25bp rate hike... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are we on the cusp of a renewed rally in the yen? The Japanese yen has been boosted by the dip in US Treasury yields, and we think it will rally a bit further against the US dollar over 2025. 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift policy rate this month The Bank of Japan has signalled that it will raise rates at its January meeting. And with inflation set to remain above the Bank’s 2% target for a while yet, we’re sticking to our forecast that the... 16th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (November 24) Growth in base pay rose to its highest figure since 1992 in November, and we think that it will continue to hold strong through to this year. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Bank of Japan can’t declare 2% inflation victory just yet We now expect underlying inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for most of 2025 and the Bank to hike rates to 1.25%. However, we believe that it’s too early for the Bank to declare... 8th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on yen from Fed could fade next year We think 2025 will be a better year for the Japanese yen against the US dollar than 2024 has been, as the relative monetary policy picture shifts more decisively in its favour. 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ taking its time but will speed up tightening in 2025 The Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting was not a great surprise. But in the post-meeting press conference Governor Ueda sounded in no hurry at all to... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 24) November’s surge in inflation wasn’t a surprise – the Bank of Japan will have known it was on the cards when it decided not to hike rates yesterday. But it should add to the Bank’s confidence that it... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
