Japan Economics Focus BoJ policy rate will reach 2% by 2030 The recent period of high inflation in Japan has kick-started a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. If inflation expectations remain elevated and structural forces push up the neutral rate of... 27th November 2023 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida on the ropes PM Kishida's disapproval rating has reached levels that prompted his two predecessors to resign. While Kishida could call snap elections by early next year, LDP leadership elections looming for autumn... 24th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s going on in Asia’s bond and FX markets? We think the yields of long-dated local-currency government bonds in Asia will generally fall further by the end of next year, and that most regional currencies will continue to make ground against... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Japanese rates at 2%? China’s economic outlook, RBI preview and more 1701331200 Our latest monthly Drop-In on the big macro and market stories in Asia will focus on new analysis making the case for Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan policy rate both to hit 2% by 2030.
Capital Daily We think the yen and renminbi will extend their gains The fall in US Treasury yields has driven rebounds in the yen and renminbi against the US dollar, and we expect this trend to continue through at least the next year or so. 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Government debt sustainability back under the spotlight Shifts in the long-term outlook for interest rates relative to GDP growth have left the fiscal position in most developed economies looking more precarious. Unless governments manage to reduce their... 21st November 2023 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Autos continuing to drive export strength Japan’s auto exports have surged this year, with volumes back at pre-pandemic levels. Its tourism sector has been doing well too as visitor numbers have returned to where they were in 2019. That... 17th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ preparing the path for further policy changes Governor Ueda has this week been preparing the ground for the next steps in the BoJ’s retreat from ultra-loose policy. Stronger recent wage data and increasing pressure for further, larger pay hikes... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update We still don’t expect a “new dawn” for Japan’s equities We expect Japan’s stock market to underperform that of the US in both local- and common-currency terms over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tighter fiscal policy will weigh on activity next year Even though the Bank of Japan de facto ended Yield Curve Control this week, the yen slid to a fresh one-year low against the dollar. And while it has gained some lost ground since then as US Treasury... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
