Equities Focus What could burst the “bubble” in AI earnings expectations? AI-related equity markets may be approaching a point where earnings expectations and capital expenditure assumptions become difficult to sustain. A correction in these expectations could trigger a... 1st July 2026 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury curve may invert again The Treasury yield curve has flattened over recent weeks despite an offsetting fall in inflation expectations. We wouldn’t be surprised if this curve inverted, but we don’t think a US recession is... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Interactive Markets Chart Pack We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets, and how we expect them to perform over the coming years. Note: This Chart Pack is... 1st July 2026 · 1 min read
Equities Update Low valuations won’t help Brazilian equities much We think Brazilian equities will underperform most other EM equity indices this year as commodity prices fall back and political risk remains a problem. In our view, Brazil’s equity market does not... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How much extra borrowing will the bond market tolerate? The markets would probably tolerate a rise in borrowing provided it is not too big (perhaps of up to about £15bn or 0.5% of GDP), it is primarily to invest, and it comes alongside a credible... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the never-ending “yentervention” cycle With the USD/JPY rate edging its way through another “line in the sand”, a further round of intervention from the Japanese authorities may well be in the offing. As the past few years have... 30th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 26) The US-Iran deal has triggered a slump in energy prices providing relief to Africa’s energy importers, particularly those in East Africa. Energy exporters such as Angola and Nigeria will see their... 30th June 2026 · 0 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2026) The energy shock has weighed on India’s economy but GDP growth should still average 6.5% in 2026-27, an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the monsoon has been weak... 30th June 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro to weaken further against the US dollar Moves in relative interest rates have contributed to the euro weakening against the US dollar since early May. We think that it will fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year as the Fed hikes twice... 30th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen even as fiscal strains linger Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to accelerate over the coming years and most of our growth forecasts lie above the consensus. At the same time, the backdrop of low inflation (by the region’s... 29th June 2026 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Bunds could leave Treasuries behind We expect the Treasury rally to run out of steam but think bunds could gain further, weighing on the euro. The yen may eventually fare better, though. 29th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy prices normalising; digital euro coming (in 2029) ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said this week the Bank would need to raise interest rates further, in part because energy prices were still “measurably higher” than before the Iran war... 26th June 2026 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (June 2026) China’s economy is growing at a slower rate than the official figures show, but growth has held steady at around 3% for the past year. Exports continue to surge on the back of strong global demand for... 26th June 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US equities won’t necessarily all peak at the same time Even if the AI boom turned into a bust the “non-tech” parts of the stock market could conceivably shrug it off for a while, as they have this week. 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US dollar rally has further to run despite inflation peaking After a sharp rise in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, the US dollar has dropped back a little today and may be due a pause in the very near term. But we think that the emerging monetary policy... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The AI equity boom reaching its final innings We think the AI rally is approaching its last stage, but is probably not quite over yet. Accordingly, we expect the tech-heavy equity markets, such as those in the US, Korea, and Taiwan, to continue... 25th June 2026 · 30 mins read
