Emerging Europe Chart Book
Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price...
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book
The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...
Asset Allocation Update
The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart...
FX Markets Weekly Wrap
The US dollar has added to its post-CPI surge, leaving it stronger this week against all major currencies on the back of expectations for even tighter Fed policy and weaker appetite for risk. Although...
UK Markets
Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by...
Asset Allocation Update
The recent decline in oil prices has weighed on some equity market indices and come alongside a decline in US inflation compensation, but we don’t think those moves will unwind much even if, as we...
Capital Daily
Although we doubt the latest CPI data out of the UK will prevent the BoE from tightening policy over the next few quarters, we continue to expect Gilt yields to fall back and sterling to grind lower...
Capital Daily
Despite the hot US inflation data released earlier today, we still think long-term Treasury yields will eventually fall as disinflationary pressures grow.
FX Markets Update
We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind.
Capital Daily
US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not.
Euro-zone Economics Update
Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP...
