China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec 25) While China’s growth picked up in November on the back of stronger export growth, the economy looks set to have expanded by less than 3.5% this year. Exports should continue growing next year, despite... 31st December 2025 · 0 mins read
Japan Economics Update Government net debt set to fall below 100% of GDP Japan’s fiscal health has continued to improve. While the expansionary measures taken by PM Takaichi mean that the budget deficit won’t narrow any further next year, it will remain very low. And with... 30th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s equity rally: what comes next? Korea’s equity market has delivered an exceptional rally this year, driven by the restoration of political stability, long-overdue corporate governance reforms and strong exposure to the global AI... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three key charts for financial markets in 2026 As the year draws to a close, the key themes and questions that emerge for 2026 are in many ways familiar. Will the AI boom continue? Can the government bond market keep muddling through? And can the... 22nd December 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Is the problem with the yen a real one? Today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise it key policy rate by another 25bp has done nothing to shore up the yen, which has fallen by another ~1% against the US dollar. Admittedly, the... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update A closer look at the tech boom in EM equities In our view, the AI bubble in emerging Market (EM) equities, which drove much of this year’s rally, hasn’t burst yet and could inflate further next year. And while large valuation gaps vis-à-vis the... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Lies, damned lies, and US CPI statistics? The surprisingly soft US CPI data doesn’t change our view that the FOMC will take a more hawkish stance next year than generally expected. And, while one questionable CPI print is not the end of the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Bonds Update How would Treasuries fare if the AI bubble burst? Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year... 18th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook AI bubble could inflate more before it bursts We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some... 17th December 2025 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily Would an end to the AI boom drag down EM equities? Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 16th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily How the US economy is influencing cyclical stocks The tech and non-tech cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly disconnected. So, while the positive payrolls data may support some cyclical stocks, tech ones may not get much of a... 16th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 16th December 2025 · 27 mins read
