Capital Daily Lies, damned lies, and US CPI statistics? The surprisingly soft US CPI data doesn’t change our view that the FOMC will take a more hawkish stance next year than generally expected. And, while one questionable CPI print is not the end of the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Bonds Update How would Treasuries fare if the AI bubble burst? Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year... 18th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook AI bubble could inflate more before it bursts We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some... 17th December 2025 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily Would an end to the AI boom drag down EM equities? Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 16th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily How the US economy is influencing cyclical stocks The tech and non-tech cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly disconnected. So, while the positive payrolls data may support some cyclical stocks, tech ones may not get much of a... 16th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 16th December 2025 · 27 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s FX shift will still leave the peso overvalued The announcement by Argentina’s central bank that it will widen the peso’s trading bands is a step in the right direction, but it won’t be enough to bring the peso closer to its fair value. With the... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key themes for financial markets in 2026 We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound... 16th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 15th December 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily No holiday cheer for the bond market The last full working week of 2025 is a busy one. Half of the G10 central banks announce policy, alongside several key economic data points including delayed US payrolls data. Government bond yields... 15th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What’s a bit different about this latest slump in JGBs Unlike the rout this spring, the latest sell-off in JGBs seems to have been mainly driven by a more hawkish assessment of Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy across the curve. We forecast the 10-year yield to... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Limited macro impact from further rupee weakness The Indian rupee continues to hit fresh lows against the US dollar and we think it will weaken to 93/$ by the end of next year. This presents limited macro risk: inflation and FX debts are very low... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fed still a threat to Treasuries, tailwind for greenback Our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will rally in 2026, as the Fed delivers just one more cut. But Wednesday’s meeting highlighted some of the risks to that view 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Should central banks do more about the "AI bubble"? Concerns about a stock market bubble are unlikely to dictate central banks’ interest rate decisions in the near term. It’s difficult to call a bubble and even harder to manipulate stock markets... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
