Capital Daily New engine, same US equity outperformance Sector composition has been a headwind to the performance of the US stock market vis-à-vis the rest of the world in recent months, but a broad-based rally has helped it to outperform regardless. 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stars are aligining for a September BoJ hike The Bank of Japan’s July Summary of Opinions suggests that the Board is increasingly open to stepping up the pace of tightening. With producer and import-price data pointing to persistent and broad... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recent rise in Treasury term premia no cause for alarm Despite a recent rebound in ACM’s estimate of the 10-year Treasury term premium, to within striking distance of May 2025’s more-than-decade high of ~0.9%, we doubt it will rise further. 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Zambia’s election President Hakainde Hichilema enters tomorrow’s general elections in Zambia as the frontrunner, buoyed by progress on long-running sovereign debt restructuring and a strong copper windfall. The next... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily September rate hike a coin toss, but hikes are coming US CPI data for July seem unlikely to swing the balance on the FOMC one way or the other, so developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the US August price data are likely to be key. For now, we... 12th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why have EM currency crisis risks stayed so low? One question frequently asked by clients about the latest refresh of our EM Financial Risk Indicators is why currency crisis risks have remained so low through the energy shock. In part, it reflects... 10th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US CPI may prove a sterner test for markets than payrolls Equity markets shrugged off last week’s big downside surprise in US payrolls but would probably find negative news on US inflation harder to absorb. That would also put renewed pressure on the yen... 10th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries’ payrolls relief is likely to prove fleeting The latest payrolls data raise the bar for a rate hike next month, but we still think the Fed will hike by more than is discounted over the coming year. That would spark a sharp sell-off at the short... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Data centre constraints, equities to outperform, July CPI Reports this week that Google’s planned AI data centre in Andhra Pradesh is facing stiff opposition over its environmental impact have highlighted the challenges facing India’s digital ambitions... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX Intervention won’t fix Japan’s credibility problem Joint US-Japan intervention provided some initial support to the yen. However, the currency has since given back some of its gains, and we don’t believe official purchases can substitute for a... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August) Euro-zone GDP expanded steadily in Q2 as higher energy prices had little impact on household consumption or business activity. The strength of July’s business and consumer surveys suggests that the... 6th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily This all-time high looks on a (slightly) firmer footing The latest all-time high in the S&P 500 arguably looks healthier than its prior one in early June, at least based on measures of market breadth. We think that has helped clear the way for a further... 6th August 2026 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Your questions on Japan’s markets answered The yen had weakened to a 40-year low against the dollar before FX intervention prompted a rebound last week, while the 10-year JGB yield is close to multi-year highs. This Update answers key client... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update 2024-style carry trade unwind still appears unlikely While carry trade positioning appears to have increased over the past couple of years, we doubt the recent yen intervention alone will trigger a carry trade unwind and a rapid yen appreciation along... 5th August 2026 · 4 mins read
