FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound skips a beat on FOMC ambivalence After a strong run since mid-May, the US dollar has stalled this week after a run of mixed data and Fed officials striking a cautious tone in recent speeches pushed US interest rate expectations a... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mega-cap outperformance: lessons from history In a recent Global Markets Update, we analysed the remarkably narrow rally in the S&P 500 so far in 2023. We concluded that recent history supported our forecast that the rally will run out of steam... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the recent rally marks a new dawn for Japan’s equities We don’t think that the recent strong gains in Japan’s equity market mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag other markets over the rest of... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Book Odds look stacked against risky assets Aside from the US stock market – which is being propped up by a handful of big name stocks and a serious dose of AI fever – most risky assets have struggled over the past month or so. We don’t think... 1st June 2023 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Chart Book Crosswinds continue in currency markets The US dollar has rebounded in recent weeks as resilient US economic data and renewed hawkish noises from the FOMC have revived the “higher for longer” narrative, shifting relative interest rate... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily More cause for concern in macro than market corporate earnings While a relatively upbeat Q1 earnings season helped to assuage concerns that the US economy is heading for a recession, last week’s macroeconomic profit data painted a less rosy picture. 31st May 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Book US equity rally may be on shaky foundations Recent gains in the US stock market have been unusually narrow, and we don’t think the conditions are yet in place for a broad-based rally. 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Latest signs of optimism in Turkey’s markets may not last A sense that President Erdogan might shift towards orthodox policymaking seems to be soothing Turkey’s financial markets, but we doubt this optimism will last long. And we think the Turkish lira will... 30th May 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Book Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Upside for US equities probably limited in debt ceiling resolution We expect any resolution to the debt ceiling crisis to provide only a modest boost to “risky” assets such as equities, given how well they have held up thus far in anticipation of a deal being struck... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar marches on thanks to “higher for longer” For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive... 26th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Revising up our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield Higher risk premia on sterling-denominated assets, which coincided with last September’s disastrous “mini-budget”, have typically long since evaporated. The recent increase in Gilt yields – to levels... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further Despite the recent slowdown in China’s reopening recovery, we don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further against the US dollar. Yield differentials should begin to tilt back in favour of the... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Crisis risks loom for Turkey’s financial markets President Erdogan looks set to secure victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election on 28th May. This Update sets out how we think this would play out in Turkey’s financial markets... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
