FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What happened to the bond vigilantes? Tests of investors’ nerves have come thick and fast lately, with the latest being a hike in tariffs in Canada. Despite some small wobbles, the big picture is that those nerves have mostly held so far... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil just isn’t big enough to rattle global markets Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty of margin for error when it comes to tariffs Even if tariffs on US imports don’t rise substantially more next month for many countries after yet another delay, who is ‘paying’ for the increases in tariffs that have already occurred and appear... 9th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets are (probably) right to ignore Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop Market participants have largely shrugged off President Trump’s latest set of threats to raise tariffs on a range of countries, focusing on the fact that today’s “deadline” for re-imposing the... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be... 8th July 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will stablecoins move into the mainstream? In this Update, we answer the key questions about what stablecoins are, whether they will become more widely used and what implications they have for the US Treasury market. 8th July 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Weaker dollar not a significant inflationary threat A weaker dollar should not compound the upward pressure on goods prices from tariffs too greatly given that the greenback remains strong by historical standards and, in any case, the pass-through of... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lack of tariff clarity may not hold back US markets Despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets – especially equities and the dollar – to rally over the rest of the year. 7th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Summer sun may shine on the S&P 500 There may be little to stand in the way of further gains in the S&P 500 this summer, provided today’s enactment of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is followed next week by a market-friendly decision on... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Solid payrolls provides only limited relief for the dollar The US dollar has stabilised to a degree this week after another solid non-farm payrolls report generated a bit of a rebound in US interest rate expectations. The bigger picture remains that the... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
