Equities

Our Economists Recommend

The latest key insight, in-depth analysis and thematic research collections

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset Allocation Outlook: The calm after the storm

With the noise around US tariffs and war in the Middle East fading, at least for now, we think the stage is set for some further decent returns from “risky” assets – especially US equities – over the...

26th June 2025 27 mins read

Asset Allocation

Total Return Forecasts

Explore our cross-asset total return forecasts in a range of currencies.

Asset Allocation

Global Markets Forecasts

Explore our forecasts for equities and bonds across developed and emerging markets.

Equities Update

S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next

We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000.

8th August 2025 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Bonds aren’t swaying growth’s relentless march over value

We don’t expect the relentless march of ‘growth’ over ‘value’ in the S&P 500 to end soon, regardless of what happens to ‘risk-free’ real Treasuries.

5th August 2025 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the payrolls fallout

Weak non-farm payrolls data have left investors concluding that a September Fed rate cut is almost nailed on and sparked a reassessment of risk across markets. We think this reassessment is slightly...

1st August 2025 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Your questions on equities, bonds and FX answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for equity, bond and currency markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received.

22nd July 2025 9 mins read

Equities Update

A closer look at equities and tariffs

President Trump’s recent suggestion that he may yet ratchet US tariffs higher highlights how much uncertainty there still is around both where tariff rates will eventually settle and the US policy...

12th June 2025 4 mins read

US equity exceptionalism is back

We think the bar for another major sell-off in markets amid continued noise around US tariffs is quite high. And our base case remains that, in aggregate, US effective tariff rates will remain around their current levels. That is part of the reasons why we expect stock markets generally to make further gains during the rest of this year, and indeed in the next couple of years. We see equities in the US outperforming, notably thanks to a robust performance of the tech sector and a rebounding dollar. Indeed, we have revised up our S&P 500 forecast, to 6,750 for the end of this year and 7,250 for the end of 2026.

Otherwise, we expect the tech-heavy indices in Asia to fare well too, but those in commodity-sensitive markets to struggle.