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AI equity boom increasingly on borrowed time

We think the AI rally is approaching its last stage but is probably not quite over yet. Accordingly, we expect the tech-heavy equity markets, such as those in the US, Korea, and Taiwan, to continue to outperform over the remainder of this year. But we expect them to fall, in some cases quite sharply, next year. Our baseline scenario is that the S&P 500 ends 2026 at 8,250 but drops back to 6,500 by the end of 2027.

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