Equities

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Bonds & Equities

Explore our CE equity forecasts and detailed insights into the factors influencing our views, including valuations, earnings, and more.

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Interactive Markets Chart Pack

We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets with a focus on how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting the outlook for...

1st June 2026 1 min read

Equities Update

How much more upside for equities if the Strait re-opened fully?

If the Strait of Hormuz re-opened fully soon, the upside for global equities might appear limited given MSCI’s ACWI Index is now more than 4% higher than before the Iran war began. But its surge from...

7th May 2026 5 mins read

Equities Focus

Will AI earnings keep fuelling gains in the S&P 500?

Any unravelling of the AI-related boom in earnings would upend the S&P 500. But even though there are reasons why that could conceivably happen, our base case is that the boom won’t turn to bust this...

21st May 2026 15 mins read

Equities Focus

Will inflation derail the equity rally?

Past form suggests that a sustained period of high inflation would be a headwind to the US stock market and the outperformance of the so-called ‘big tech’ sectors. But inflation would probably need to...

28th May 2026 14 mins read

Global Markets Focus

The threats from US reliance on foreign financial flows

This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk...

29th September 2025 20 mins read

Equities Update

What share issuance can tell us about the AI bubble

One warning sign that a bubble is close to bursting is high and rising gross equity issuance; that was a feature, for example, during the dotcom bubble and the “non-profitable tech” bubble in 2020-21...

23rd January 2026 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict

Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big...

10th March 2026 6 mins read

US tech to keep leading the way

We think the AI-driven surge in equity markets will continue in spite of the ongoing energy shock, with tech-heavy stock indices such as those in the US, Japan, and China outperforming while indices more tilted towards “old economy” sectors lag.

There is no question that equity valuations are high, especially in the US. But they not yet as stretched as during the late 1990s, and the investment boom in AI-technology shows few signs of an imminent slowdown. Set against that, the economic outlook has clearly worsened on account of the Iran War. Our baseline scenario is that the tech surge continues to outweigh other concerns and that the S&P 500 ends 2026 at 7,500.