US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 26) Wage growth was weaker last quarter than the RBA had expected and supports our view that the Bank is done tightening. 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2026) The further falls in PAYE employment and job vacancies in July show that the labour market continued to weaken. This supports our view that the labour market is not conducive of second-round inflation... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2026) After regaining some ground at the end of Q2, China's economy lost momentum again last month. The silver lining is that the boost to manufacturing activity from AI capex continued to build, and that... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softer wage growth will comfort the Fed We would not read too much into the fall in payrolls in July, but the lack of wage pressures clearly reduces the need for the Fed to raise rates soon unless the price data next week deliver a big... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy gaining momentum The latest data show an economy gaining momentum. While that suggests we should expect slightly more hawkish communications from the Bank of Canada when it meets next month, the recent softness in... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2026) Although the hiring weakness in the July employment report has not been reflected in the broader set of labour market indicators, it is still likely to revive concerns among Fed officials about the... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2026) The surge in employment in July following last week’s strong preliminary second-quarter GDP growth estimate is further evidence that the economy is gaining momentum after a weak start to the year... 7th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Feeling the heat In the near term, Europe's summer heatwave is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on GDP but poses an upside risk to inflation through its effect on food, electricity and gas prices. Nevertheless... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market will give RBNZ pause for thought New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose more sharply last quarter than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had anticipated and leading indicators suggest that it will remain high for now. Accordingly, we... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August) Euro-zone GDP expanded steadily in Q2 as higher energy prices had little impact on household consumption or business activity. The strength of July’s business and consumer surveys suggests that the... 6th August 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) The fall in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June suggests there was a lot of disinflation in the system before the start of the Iran war. And the continued weakness in the... 6th August 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania's economy faces a long road to recovery Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2026) With spare capacity in the labour market still rising, the RBNZ won’t be in a rush to hike rates again. 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
