Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2026) The world economy has gained momentum in Q3. Business surveys have improved, trade is booming amid the AI buildout, and consumption has been resilient to high energy prices. Meanwhile, jobs growth has... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Near-term pain, better times ahead The ongoing energy price shock is a further temporary setback to the UK economy rather than a permanent blow. If we’re right that over the next year the economy and labour market won’t be strong... 28th September 2026 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AI boost to productive capacity remains elusive We share RBA Governor Bullock’s view that the AI boom is currently doing more to boost demand than the economy’s supply side. With business surveys also suggesting that price pressures remain elevated... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Improving surveys bode well for payrolls The improvement in the survey indicators bodes well for hiring in September, while payrolls should also benefit from a reversal of the seasonal effects that weighed on hiring at the start of the... 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2026) A solid rebound in employment in August didn’t prevent the jobless rate from rising again. With the labour market likely to cool even further in the coming months, we think the RBA’s 25bp hike next... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
RBA Watch One more and done for the RBA With some of the upside inflation risks it had warned about now crystallising, the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25bp at its September meeting. However, we believe that will mark the end of... 22nd September 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by mid-2027 Japan’s economy has coped with the energy shock well and we expect GDP growth to remain solid. While next year’s sales tax cut could result in inflation falling to very low levels, underlying... 21st September 2026 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2026) The further weakening in labour activity in August lends some more support to our view that second-round inflation effects from higher energy prices will be muted. We still think there is a reasonable... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Banxico’s next move will be a hike The recent patch of soft inflation in Mexico is unlikely to be sustained and the headline rate will follow a higher path than the central bank (Banxico) anticipates. With Banxico likely to revise up... 8th September 2026 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update China’s labour market is not as weak as it looks Headline employment data are giving an overly weak impression of China’s labour market. Our Labour Market Indicator points to still-firm cyclical conditions, while a structural shift in labour demand... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (July 2026) With wage growth going from strength to strength, the case for the Bank of Japan to hasten the pace of tightening is becoming increasingly compelling. 8th September 2026 · 2 mins read
