Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2026) March’s uneventful Labour Force Survey, paired with the drop back in oil prices in recent days, supports our view that the Bank of Canada will be content to wait until next year to change policy. 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2026) The larger-than-expected rebound in non-farm payrolls in March mainly reflects a reversal of the strike and weather effects that weighed on hiring in February, rather than being a sign that the labour... 3rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 26) The Tankan survey showed that firms are shrugging off the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which should encourage the BoJ to hike rates at this month’s meeting. 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly SEPH paints a brighter picture of employment this year The large decline in the official population data last quarter suggests the Labour Force Survey is still not entirely picking up the collapse in immigration and should therefore give a more... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations are a problem for the RBA There are signs that Australia's electricity inflation will ease in the coming months, as domestic generation costs remain contained despite the crisis. However, the more pressing concern for... 27th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 0 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound after weather and strike disruption We estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by an above-consensus 125,000 in March following the disruption from severe weather and strikes in February. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is likely... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (March 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) Higher oil prices will result in slightly softer consumption in the near term than we previously expected, but we doubt recent events will derail the AI buildout. Thanks to strong AI-related... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI has already peaked but still averages $80 per barrel over the rest of the year, acting as a modest net positive for GDP growth and boosting headline inflation... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Strong Shunto results will prompt more BoJ rate hikes This year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) delivered strong pay hikes for the third consecutive year, which will convince the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further this year. And while softer... 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Market pricing for many rate hikes conflicts with jobs outlook While there are plausible scenarios in which the Bank of England hikes interest rates in response to the leap in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the jumps in market rate... 20th March 2026 · 10 mins read
