Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026) The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) Although wage growth eased a touch in Q1, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures could soon bubble up again. As a result, we still think the RBA has more work to do. 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI averages $80pb over the second half of the year. This will boost GDP growth slightly and keep headline inflation above 2.5% in the coming months. But the backdrop of weak... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack - Iran War Edition (May 2026) While Gulf economies have already taken a big hit from the Iran war, the effect on activity in major economies seems to have been limited so far. Inflation has begun to rise and will continue to do so... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr 2026) The rise in the unemployment rate to a six-month high of 6.9% has trimmed investors’ overly hawkish interest rate expectations and supports our view that, with the labour market in a funk and a... 8th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr. 2026) The solid 115,000 rise in payroll employment in April and still-muted 4.3% unemployment rate add to the reasons for the Fed to remain on hold for now. The reduced reliance of hiring on healthcare in... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Would ECB rate hikes be a mistake? With interest rate hikes by the ECB looking likely, we are often asked whether this would be a mistake, with unfavourable comparisons made to previous ECB monetary policy decisions. But there are... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2026) The slight fall in the jobless rate in Q1 won’t change the RBNZ’s assessment that labour market is operating with substantial excess capacity. Accordingly, we continue to believe that the Bank won’t... 6th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 5th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth to stabilise after choppy start to the year After a volatile few months, we estimate non-farm payrolls increased by a softer 55,000 in April, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%. 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update AI and jobs: could this time be completely different? We still believe that AI will alter the nature of work, rather than significantly diminish the role of human labour. While it is not impossible that AI eventually displaces most or all jobs, such an... 28th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: AI and the labour market – Should we fear a 'jobpocalypse'? 14th May 2026, 3:00PM BST Concerns about AI’s impact on jobs are intensifying, with recent labour market data prompting debate over whether emerging signs of displacement reflect a genuine shift or simply cycl
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
