Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 339,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May will dominate the headlines, but the employment report was not all positive – with a big drop in the household survey... 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2022/23 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market strength likely to worry Copom The latest data suggest that Brazil’s labour market isn’t softening as quickly as we and many others (not least the central bank) had anticipated. That’s keeping wage growth high and, while that may... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show cooling labour market The April JOLTS data suggest that the gradual easing in labour market conditions continues, which is putting downward pressure on wage growth. 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Book Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The unemployment rate reversed the sharp rise in March last month and the job-to-applicant ratio stabilised, but a recession in H2 should still see the unemployment rate peak at 3% by year-end. 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nordic labour markets remain tight The labour markets in Norway and Sweden remain very tight, in line with conditions in the euro-zone. This is likely to keep services inflation high over the coming months and encourage the Norges Bank... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions easing The decline in the job vacancy rate to a 22-month low in March eases some of the pressure on the Bank of Canada but, with the CFIB Business Barometer showing a renewed rise in firms’ selling price... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Targeted migration could help solve labour shortages While it is a hot political potato, well targeted migration could be one part of the solution to the UK’s labour shortages problem. That could help inflation and interest rates be lower than otherwise... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend continues We estimate that employment growth continued to trend gradually lower in May with a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls. Although the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, the report should also... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
