The January employment report will reveal significant downward revisions to payrolls in 2025 and, due to an updated methodology for the birth-death model, the initially reported payroll gains for this year will be lower than we’ve been used to. Accordingly, despite some positive signs from the survey indicators, we expect a rise in payrolls of only 30,000 for January. Despite that muted gain, we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services