Canada Economics Weekly Trade talks termination emblematic of trade woes President Trump’s termination of trade talks won’t make a big difference to the near-term outlook, given rumours that any imminent deal would only provide modest tariff relief to the metals sectors... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Record shutdown would still have little impact The Federal government shutdown is headed into a fourth week. With the Senate still holding periodic votes that are doomed to fail – as lawmakers remain firmly split along party lines – and with the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring inflation and rate cut expectations While delayed US inflation data for September have seemingly made a Fed rate cut next week all but certain, we still think the growth and inflation backdrop are consistent with the Fed cutting rates... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US S&P Global PMIs (Oct) The rebound in the S&P Global composite PMI to a 3-month high of 54.8 in October, from 53.9, puts it at a level that has historically been consistent with GDP growth of around 3% annualised. The... 24th October 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep 2025) The downside surprise to core CPI prices in September should make the Fed feel even more comfortable with its likely decision to cut interest rates next week, and presents a risk to our view that the... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities Canaries in the coalmine or a storm in a teacup? We doubt that the recent turbulence in financial markets and credit losses in the US will mark an imminent end to the AI-driven equity market surge, although recent developments illustrate that the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US defence talks, Egypt-IMF deal, Morocco 2026 Budget The US and Saudi Arabia have stepped up security talks ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House next month. A full defence pact is unlikely to materialise, however, given... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid rebound in retail sales in August will not do much to spare the economy from a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third quarter given the similar-sized fall in sales expected in... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Self-storage valuations look most stretched of all main sectors Self-storage cap rates are roughly on par with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is well short of the 200bps spread seen over the last 10 years. Coupled with an uninspiring outlook for rent growth... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What’s next for US small caps? US small caps have outperformed the average US large-cap one over the past six months or so, but we doubt that will continue. 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Dearth of official data won’t stop Fed from cutting The weakness in various labour market indicators suggest the FOMC will vote for another 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The threat of broader... 22nd October 2025 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada set to cut again Recent dovish comments from Governor Tiff Macklem suggest that, although the whole Governing Council may not be fully on board, the Bank is still likely to cut interest rates next week. 22nd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US private credit “bubble” The US equity market has recovered its poise over the past couple of days after recent jitters around the regional banking sector, but the concerns around credit losses may linger. Even if... 21st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is private credit a systemic threat to the economy? The collapse of auto parts supplier First Brands may have triggered losses at US regional banks, but we don’t think private credit represents a threat to the stability of the broader US financial... 21st October 2025 · 6 mins read
