Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar keeps calm, carry trade unwinds At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think big-tech stocks will return to the top We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus We doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equities We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Trump & ESG markets We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric... 25th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth on a firm downward trend We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2024) The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loosening cycle continues, September cut looks likely Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Big-tech results and rotation Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have... 24th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Jun. 2024) New home sales were essentially unchanged in June after their 15% slump the month before, not helped by mortgage rates which remained stubbornly high at around 7%. So far in July, borrowing costs have... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed warming up to a September rate cut With the disinflationary trend broadening out and the unemployment rate rising, recent comments from Fed officials suggest that the FOMC is on track to cut interest rates in September. While the... 24th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily US banks may rally further We think there are a number of factors supporting the recent rally in US bank shares, not just the rotation out of tech stocks. So, while we doubt this rotation is here to stay, we think bank stocks... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read