Capital Daily Euro-zone equity outperformance is on borrowed time We think the recent outperformance of euro-zone equities over US ones has run its course. 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed won’t cave to Trump pressure A contraction in GDP and near-flatlining in core PCE prices would usually be more than enough to persuade policymakers at the Fed to cut interest rates. Since those data precede the implementation of... 30th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Amazon expansion unlikely to bring turnaround for industrial Demand from Amazon has been a key driver of industrial fortunes over recent years, so the announcement of a new $15bn injection in the US was greeted warmly by market watchers. But, while this should... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tariffs and green tech; Canada’s “carbon tax” election New US tariffs announced this month will raise the cost of green technologies and add to the growing list of headwinds facing the green transition under President Trump. Meanwhile, the Liberals’... 30th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1) The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data healthy amid DOGE purge The JOLTS data again showed the labour market stabilising at a healthy level in March. While there were for the first time some signs of the DOGE purge of the federal workforce in the survey, the... 29th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Surely the next 100 days won’t be as turbulent as the last? The US stock market and the dollar have fared worse over the last hundred days than they fared during the first hundred days of all other presidential terms since 1980. What’s more, there has been an... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025) February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump: What to expect in the second 100 days President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of... 29th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 Index shows US commercial property values now rising, but valuation gaps persist The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) recorded a third consecutive quarter of positive total returns in Q1 2025, driven primarily by income. Although capital value growth turned positive, questions remain... 28th April 2025 · 2 mins read
