US Economics Weekly Softer wage growth will comfort the Fed We would not read too much into the fall in payrolls in July, but the lack of wage pressures clearly reduces the need for the Fed to raise rates soon unless the price data next week deliver a big... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries’ payrolls relief is likely to prove fleeting The latest payrolls data raise the bar for a rate hike next month, but we still think the Fed will hike by more than is discounted over the coming year. That would spark a sharp sell-off at the short... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy gaining momentum The latest data show an economy gaining momentum. While that suggests we should expect slightly more hawkish communications from the Bank of Canada when it meets next month, the recent softness in... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2026) Although the hiring weakness in the July employment report has not been reflected in the broader set of labour market indicators, it is still likely to revive concerns among Fed officials about the... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2026) The surge in employment in July following last week’s strong preliminary second-quarter GDP growth estimate is further evidence that the economy is gaining momentum after a weak start to the year... 7th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily This all-time high looks on a (slightly) firmer footing The latest all-time high in the S&P 500 arguably looks healthier than its prior one in early June, at least based on measures of market breadth. We think that has helped clear the way for a further... 6th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update AI will boost office demand in tech hubs as long as the bubble lasts We expect AI firms to drive office demand in key tech hubs as they expand and compete for top talent, although this exposure heightens the downside risk for the least diversified tech markets if we... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Little sign yet of AI-related GDP gains in Canada There is little sign of AI effects supporting activity or productivity in Canada yet, although the evidence of accelerating ICT investment and increasing AI adoption more broadly bodes well for the... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring S&P 500 sector performance with the ISMs & AI Once upon a time, the relative performance of two baskets of ‘pure’ cyclical and defensive sectors in the S&P 500 closely tracked a GDP-weighted index of headline readings from the ISM manufacturing... 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2026) The slight rise in the headline ISM Services Index in July leaves our weighted composite ISM index at a level consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised. While a little... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust? An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar’s recent drop We think the US dollar’s recent setbacks will prove temporary. But that view relies on continued US economic and equity market exceptionalism outweighing renewed uncertainty around the Fed and US... 4th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun. 2026) The slight narrowing of the trade deficit in June reflected a fall in imports of AI goods which helped to offset the big fall in energy exports. This suggests the second estimate of second-quarter GDP... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jul. 2026) The continued rise in the trade surplus was largely attributable to a jump in gold exports, although there were still genuine pockets of strength in the external sector. This offset a drop in oil... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Jul. 26) The jump in the ISM Manufacturing Index to a four-year high in July suggests that the sector gained momentum at the start of the third quarter, despite the rebound in oil prices. Although the prices... 3rd August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention, US-Iran pause (again), & US payrolls US economic policy has taken a strange turn but we think the underlying dynamism of the US economy and stock market will win out in the coming months. Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be... 3rd August 2026 · 5 mins read
