US Economics Update Fed on board with further loosening despite high inflation The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China's Nvidia ban signals strong push for chip self-sufficiency The immediate consequence for China’s economy of banning the import of Nvidia chips will be limited. But the move signals a strong commitment by China’s leadership to developing cutting-edge chip... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update 25bp cut but Bank unwilling to commit to more yet Alongside the decision to cut its policy rate by 25p today, the Bank of Canada dropped its previous forward guidance hinting at more cuts to come. Nonetheless, Governor Tiff Macklem’s comments in the... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Aug. 2025) The weakness in August housing starts was as expected, especially after July’s hard-to-explain strength. While homebuilders have recently become more optimistic about prospects for housing demand, as... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields & dollar still likely to rebound Another set of robust US activity data suggest that the US economy remains in decent shape despite the recent slowdown in employment growth. This suggests to us that the FOMC will stick to a more... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for dollar ahead of the FOMC We no longer expect much of a rebound in the US dollar this year as the FOMC is about to resume rate cuts. But given the extent of Fed easing already discounted, our base case remains that the dollar... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2025) The rise in home sales in August was a little better than expected and, while house prices did edge down, there was little in the latest housing data to make us doubt our view that house prices are... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output continued its long trend of underwhelming growth in August, bucking claims that tariffs would either trigger a downturn or a reshoring renaissance. Instead, the factory sector... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales indicate that consumers are not pulling back despite the labour market cooling. 16th September 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) Core goods prices fell in August for the first time this year, which supports our view that the upside risks to inflation have eased considerably in recent months. That suggests the Bank of Canada... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equity allocation starting to flash red for the US stock market The share of equities in the financial assets of US households and nonprofit institutions serving them (NPISH) hit its highest level in at least 75 years in the second quarter of this year. That... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2025) The increases in manufacturing and wholesale sales in July suggest tentative signs of a recovery in two of the sectors hardest hit by US tariffs. Less encouragingly, new orders fell by 2.2%, while the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC likely to bring some relief for struggling greenback The dollar has weakened a little further this week after US inflation and jobs data again came out on the soft side. This probably cements a 25bp rate cut next week’s FOMC meeting. But we continue to... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
