Capital Daily US equities won’t necessarily all peak at the same time Even if the AI boom turned into a bust the “non-tech” parts of the stock market could conceivably shrug it off for a while, as they have this week. 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Summer festival fever to keep hiring momentum intact The June Employment Report, due a day earlier than usual (Thursday July 2nd), is likely to show another solid 110,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, with hiring supported by major summer events, including... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US dollar rally has further to run despite inflation peaking After a sharp rise in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, the US dollar has dropped back a little today and may be due a pause in the very near term. But we think that the emerging monetary policy... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The AI equity boom reaching its final innings We think the AI rally is approaching its last stage, but is probably not quite over yet. Accordingly, we expect the tech-heavy equity markets, such as those in the US, Korea, and Taiwan, to continue... 25th June 2026 · 30 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to power growth and keep core inflation firm The economy is in the middle of an AI-related capex boom and, with some of the prior policy-related headwinds now fading, we expect average annual GDP growth to pick-up to an above-consensus 2.5% next... 25th June 2026 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2026) The 3.4% rate of core PCE inflation in May likely marks the peak of this cycle, as tariff effects fade and the recent plunge in oil prices weighs on several categories, including airline fares. Even... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key takeaways from our alternative assets roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for alternative real estate assets. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 25th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in headline inflation in May was mostly due to higher fuel and food prices, both of which should prove temporary. With core price pressures still muted otherwise, the... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Strait jitters, bond divergence, and more UK politics Renewed US-Iran tensions have caused a bit of concern in markets at the start of the week, but as long as negotiations press ahead, global bonds could continue to diverge both from oil prices and from... 22nd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly US-Iran peace deal brings growth risks back to the fore The sharp drop in global oil benchmarks on the back of the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shifts the balance of risks back towards weaker growth and away from higher inflation... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Apr) Tentative signs of a turnaround in consumer spending The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in April suggests that consumers may be past the worst in terms of the impacts from higher gasoline... 19th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Warsh era begins on a firmly hawkish note Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair did not fail to live up to expectations. While the promise of significant institutional reform will matter a lot over the months... 18th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Data centres to perform well, but risks are growing New MSCI coverage of data centres in the UK and US not surprisingly show the sector strongly outperformed over the past decade. But while returns are still strong in the US, in the UK the sector is... 18th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three questions for Treasuries in the Fed’s new era A sustained rally in Treasuries is, in our view, unlikely over the next year or so, given the macro backdrop and what we’ve heard from the first press conference under the new Fed Chair. 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opens the door to a hike as soon as September The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
